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For the third time in the last four seasons, the Houston Texans (11-5) host a wild-card game as they welcome their AFC South rivals the Indianapolis Colts (10-6) to NRG Stadium. These squads split their two-game season series, with each team claiming victory on the road and Indianapolis winning the most recent game in Week 14 at NRG Stadium. However, for this week’s game, it is the Texans who are 2.5-point favorites with the total opening at 47.5 points.

TRENDS

• The total has gone UNDER in four of the Colts’ last five games vs the Texans.
• The Texans allow the third-fewest points per home game in the NFL this season (17.0).
• The Colts are 9-1 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games.

Colts cruised through the second half of the season

After opening the season with a 1-5 SU record, Indianapolis’ playoff hopes were hanging by a thread. However, a 9-1 SU record through the final 10 games of the season has landed the team in a wild-card game. The Colts’ success was due largely to an impressive offensive line that allowed quarterback Andrew Luck plenty of time to pick apart the opponent’s secondary. That O-line was tops in the NFL, surrendering an average of just 1.1 sacks per game, an incredible turnaround from the previous season when their 3.5 sacks allowed per game was the worst mark in the league. This drastic change can be partly attributed to their 2018 first-round pick, Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson (sixth overall), who has gone on to become a Pro Bowler in his rookie season.

Another reason for Indianapolis’ rough start to the year was the injury to starting running back Marlon Mack, who missed four of the opening five games but finished the year with 908 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, which ranked in a tie for 17th-best in the league. Among the span of games that he missed, Andrew Luck was the leading rusher for the Colts in Week 3 at Philadelphia with 33 yards, and Jordan Wilkins had a team-high 16 yards the week after vs Houston.

Texans look to remain strong at home

Houston has the luxury of hosting this wild-card game after putting together an impressive 11-5 campaign, including going 6-2 at NRG Stadium. Much like the Colts, the Texans stumbled out of the gate to a 0-3 start but caught fire after a 37-34 overtime win at Indianapolis in Week 4 that catapulted them into a nine-game winning streak. They had to deal with some adversity when they lost Will Fuller V to a season-ending ACL injury after the wide receiver paced the team in receiving yards in four of the first eight games.

Overall, though, it was the defense that paved the path to victory for the Texans as they surrendered just 19.8 points per game, the fourth-fewest in the NFL, including just 17 ppg at home to rank third in the league. Additionally, they had the second-best turnover margin per game at +0.8 and led the league in opponent fumbles lost per game at 0.9. Of course, the defense is led by three-time defensive player of the year J.J. Watt, who topped the league with seven forced fumbles and was second in sacks with 16. Offensively, Houston averaged 25.1 points per game to rank 11th in the NFL and had the eighth-most rushing yards per game at 126.3.

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