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Just three games on the NBA slate for Thursday, so we’ll take a look at some trends that have developed so far this season, as we usually do when faced with just a few games.

So far, there’s been no place like home, as home teams are 444-401-18, which is 52.5% and just above the 52.38% break-even point. Home favorites have fared even better, going 293-250-12 (54%) and home favorites of five or more points have been a solid 196-157-10 (55.5%). Double-digit home favorites have been even better, going 76-52-2 (59.4%) against the spread.

Teams playing with no rest are 123-142-8 (46.4%) and are 59-76-6 (44%) when coming off a win and 64-67-2 when coming off a loss. Favorites playing with no rest are 49-48-4, while underdogs playing the second of a back-to-back situation are 71-92-4 (43.6%) and fare worse when coming off a victory the night before.

One aspect that gets talked about on occasion is teams returning home after a long road trip and home teams who played their last four games on the road are 25-33 (43.1%) ATS and just 5-14 against the number when they’re made underdogs.

One area teams are performing pretty poorly is when they’re underdogs after being favored in at least their past three games, as these teams are just 33-50 (39.8%) against the spread.

Charlotte at Orlando: The Magic opened -3 in this one and the line has been bet up to 3.5 with Orlando getting two-thirds of the wagers. The Hornets drilled Orlando 125-100 on New Year’s Eve and also won the first meeting between the two by 32 points. Over the last 20 years, home favorites who lost the last two meetings by 25 or more points are just 5-9 ATS, so a situation that doesn’t happen all that often. The Hornets are 5-1 ATS when playing a team they defeated by 25 or more this season, with last game against the Magic being one of those wins, while Orlando is 5-3-1 as a favorite with revenge. I have Orlando winning by four and by five.

New York at Atlanta: The Hawks opened -6 and the line has been bet up to 7.5 with Atlanta getting three quarters of the early wagers. The Knicks are 4-6 ATS when playing the second game of a back-to-back situation this year, but the Hawks are 0-3 as a favorite and this is the largest favorite they’ve been since the 2016-17 season. I have this one pretty close and despite the Knicks in a poor situation regarding teams in back-to-back situations, will take New York as an anti-public play.

Oklahoma City at New Orleans: The Thunder opened -4 and the line has inched up to -5 with Oklahoma City getting more than 85% of the early wagers in the game. The last four meetings between these two teams have been decided by six or fewer points, but the Pelicans aren’t playing very good basketball right now and home underdogs who lost their last game as a home favorite by 30 or more points are 3-3 ATS over the past 20 years, so another situation that doesn’t pop up all that often. But if we look at home dogs who lost by 20 or more as a home favorite, we’d see a 25-17-2 (59.5%) mark. I have the Thunder winning by six and also have it even.

FREE PICK OF DAY:
St Mary’s CA -11 over Santa Clara

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FREE PICK WINS TUESDAY!
St. Joseph’s is coming off one of its biggest wins of the year by routing Saint Louis on Friday night by 30 points. The Hawks are listed as a short home favorite against St. Bonaventure, as the Bonnies are coming off a 30-point loss to VCU on Saturday. St. Bonaventure routed St. Joe’s in the first matchup at home, while the Bonnies have won each of their last three road games. The Hawks have yet to win consecutive A-10 games as
I’ll take the Bonnies in the road underdog role.
WIN St Bonnie +2 over St Joseph’s