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NCAAF Week 14 Betting

November 29, 2022

Opening line: USC -1.5; Over/Under 66.5Time: 8 p.m. ET Friday (FOX)Site: Allegiant...

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NCAAF Week 14 Betting

November 29, 2022

Opening line: USC -1.5; Over/Under 66.5
Time: 8 p.m. ET Friday (FOX)
Site: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET MONDAY: USC has just one blemish on its record, and it just so happens to be a 43-42 setback to Utah in Week 7. The Trojans (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) took care of Notre Dame in Week 13, winning 38-27 as 4.5-point home favorites. Southern Cal has cashed three straight and five of its last seven, heading into Friday’s Pac-12 championship game.

Utah (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) got into the Pac-12 title game by way of Washington’s Week 13 win over Washington State. The Utes played Friday in Week 13, traveling to Colorado and basting the Buffaloes 63-21 to cash as 30-point favorites.

USC and Utah played a screamer in Week 7 at Salt Lake City. Trailing 42-35, the Utes scored a touchdown in the final minute and, rather than kick the PAT for a tie and likely overtime, opted for a 2-point attempt. Utah converted to win 43-42, while USC covered as a 3.5-point pup.

The Trojans are already up to -3 on TwinSpires’ college football Week 14 odds board. Spread tickets are running 2/1 and money 3/1 on USC.

“The public and sharps are both backing USC. And USC moneyline is already 8/1 tickets and 11/1 money,” Lucas said.

Southern Cal is -150 to Utah’s +125 on the moneyline.

The total nudged up to 67, with 65% of early bets/62% of early money on the Over.

No. 11 LSU vs No. 1 Georgia

Opening line: Georgia -16.5; Over/Under 49.5
Time: 4 p.m. ET Saturday (CBS)
Site: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET MONDAY: LSU blew up its CFP hopes by falling apart as a double-digit road chalk in Week 13. The Tigers (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS), who closed as 10-point favorites, tumbled to Texas A&M 38-23.

Even with two losses, had LSU won at Texas A&M, then beaten Georgia in the SEC championship game, the Tigers would certainly have reached the four-team playoff. But with three losses, regardless of what happens this week against the Bulldogs, LSU has no shot.

Meanwhile, Georgia (12-0 SU, 6-6 ATS) doesn’t seem likely to lose in the SEC final. But if somehow the Bulldogs falter, they’ll probably still land in the four-team tournament and get a chance to defend their title.

In Week 13, Georgia spotted instate rival Georgia Tech an early touchdown, and the Bulldogs led just 10-7 at halftime. But Kirby Smart’s outfit rolled in the second half as Georgia won 37-14. That said, the Bulldogs fell well short of covering as massive 36.5-point home favorites.

Big ‘dog LSU is taking 62% of early spread tickets in TwinSpires Sportsbook’s college football Week 14 odds market. However, 65% of early spread dollars are on Georgia.

“There was early sharp buy on Georgia -16.5/-17,” TwinSpires director of retail sports Zachary Lucas said.

The Bulldogs are already up to -17.5. The total is also on the rise, up a point to 50.5, with tickets 2/1 and money 2.5/1 on the Over.

 
 

Purdue vs No. 2 Michigan

Opening line: Michigan -16; Over/Under 50.5
Time: 8 p.m. ET Saturday (FOX)
Site: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET MONDAY: Michigan (12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS) finished the regular season with a huge bang. The Wolverines went to Ohio State as 8.5-point underdogs and rode a 21-point fourth-quarter explosion to a 45-23 blowout victory. Michigan won the Big Ten East to cement its trip to Indianapolis for the Big Ten title tilt.

Purdue (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) won its last three games SU to take the Big Ten West. In Week 13, the Boilermakers had no issues at Indiana, winning 30-16 as 10.5-point road favorites.

Michigan initially ticked up to -16.5 at TwinSpires,, then returned to -16. The Wolverines are taking 62% of early tickets/69% of early dollars.

“It’s a mix of sharp and public play on Michigan,” Lucas said.

The total is up a point to 51.5, with 54% of tickets/61% of money on the Over.

No. 13 Kansas State vs No. 3 TCU

Opening line: TCU -2.5; Over/Under 61
Time: Noon ET Saturday (ABC)
Site: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET MONDAY: Texas Christian (12-0 SU, 9-2-1 ATS) put a massive exclamation point on its regular season, while staying unbeaten and firmly on track for a CFP slot. The Horned Frogs boatraced Iowa State 62-14 laying 9.5 points at home in Week 13.

Kansas State (9-3 SU, 8-3-1 ATS) needed and got a win in Week 13 to land in the Big 12 championship game. The Wildcats went off as 11.5-point home favorites against rival Kansas and rolled to a 47-27 victory.

TCU and K-State met in Week 8 in Fort Worth, where the Wildcats bolted out to a 28-10 second-quarter lead. But the Horned Frogs shut out Kansas State the rest of the way, scoring the game’s final 28 points in a 38-28 win as 3.5-point favorites.

The Big 12 title game is practically at home for TCU, at AT&T Stadium in nearby Arlington.

TwinSpires hasn’t moved off TCU -2.5 yet, although spread tickets are running 4/1 and spread money 6/1 on TCU in the early going.

“It’s all TCU so far. K-State will be a big need for us,” Lucas said.

The total quickly climbed from 61 to 62.5, but this afternoon inched back to 62. The Over is seeing 63% of tickets/68% of money.

No. 10 Clemson vs No. 24 North Carolina

Opening line: Clemson -8; Over/Under 61.5
Time: 8 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC)
Site: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.

UPDATE 3 P.M. ET MONDAY: Clemson entered Week 13 still harboring a little hope in the CFP race, but that hope imploded on its home field against instate rival South Carolina. The Tigers (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) closed as 14.5-point favorites and lost outright 31-30.

In back-to-back weeks, the Gamecocks blew up the championship aspirations of Tennessee and Clemson.

North Carolina (9-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) made it to the ACC championship game despite losing its last two regular-season contests. In Week 13, the Tar Heels were laying 6.5 points at home against North Carolina State, but needed a touchdown as time expired just to tie the game at 24 and force overtime.

After trading field goals on the first possessions of OT, N.C. State made a field goal, and North Carolina missed a 35-yarder to lose 30-27.

Clemson receded to -7.5 at TwinSpires, where early ticket count is 2/1-plus and early money 2.5/1 on North Carolina.

“UNC is a very trendy underdog, as expected. It’s early, but I imagine we’ll be needing Clemson,” Lucas said.

The total is more on the move, going from 61.5 to 62.5, then to 63.5. The Over is drawing 58% of early tickets/72% of early money.

“Sharp play on the Over,” Lucas said.

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