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Archived: Free Pick: Florida St -4.5 over Va Tech

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Archived: Free Pick: Florida St -4.5 over Va Tech

March 5, 2019

The No. 14 Florida State Seminoles welcome the No. 15 Virginia Tech Hokies to the Tucker Center for their final home game of the season. A winning streak will come to an end tonight as both Virginia Tech and Florida State enter this contest having won two games in a row. The Seminoles have won each of the last three meetings with the Hokies and are a 4.5-point favorite tonight with the total opening at 136 points.

Trends

  • Virginia Tech is 7-3 SU and 5-4-1 ATS in its last 10 games with an average winning margin of 12.86 and no win coming by fewer than five points. Florida State is 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 games with an average winning margin of 12.3 and no victory coming by fewer than five points.
  • The OVER has been a strong play for Virginia Tech recently, as five of its last seven contests have gone OVER, but only two games went OVER 136 points. Florida State has split the total over its last eight games, four going OVER and four going UNDER, but five of those matches went OVER 136 points.
  • Florida State scores seven more points per game at home vs on the road up to 79.5, while Virginia Tech scores 11 fewer points on the road down to 68.8. On the defensive side of the ball, the Seminoles surrender 67.9 ppg at home and the Hokies allow 64.6 ppg in away games.
  • These two teams rack up their offense in different ways. Virginia Tech gets 38.8 percent of its scoring from beyond the arc, the 26th-highest percentage in the nation, while Florida State gets 49.9 percent of its production from two-point range. The Seminoles’ opponents shoot 34.3 percent from downtown and the Hokies on the road allow foes to shoot 49.9 percent from inside the arc.
  • Florida State also gets 21.2 percent of its points from the free-throw line, but Virginia Tech ranks fifth in college hoops with its opponents averaging only 13.9 free-throw attempts per game.
  • The Seminoles rank 47th with 10.3 offensive rebounds per game and the Hokies rank 230th with 7.7 offensive boards. Florida State also ranks 53rd by allowing 7.4 opponent offensive rebounds per game (6.8 at home) and Virginia Tech allows 7.8 offensive boards, climbing to 8.5 in away games.

Hank’s Best Bet

Florida State -4.5

Florida State has been on a tear since a season-high three-game losing slide in mid-January, as it has gone 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS, with its only loss coming at then-No. 8 North Carolina. Virginia Tech’s offense scores 11 fewer ppg on the road, while Florida State averages seven more ppg at home. The Seminoles have the edge on the glass, averaging five more rebounds per game at 37.4 compared to the Hokies’ 32.4.

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