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Archived: NFL Playoff Previews

January 8, 2020

What an exciting opening weekend of the NFL Playoffs. If the Divisional Round is near as entertaining as Wild Card Weekend was, football fans and sports bettors are in for a real treat. In this guide, we’ll preview the games that are to come, break down the odds, and give out picks against the point spread and on the over/under total. We’ll also take a look at the updated odds to win the Super Bowl and both conferences.

Super Bowl Odds

Baltimore Ravens (+200)
San Francisco 49ers (+325)
Kansas City Chiefs (+350)
Green Bay Packers (+800)
Seattle Seahawks (+1200)
Minnesota Vikings (+1400)
Houston Texans (+2800)
Tennessee Titans (+2800)

Odds To Win AFC

Baltimore Ravens (-137)
Kansas City Chiefs (+170)
Houston Texans (+1200)
Tennessee Titans (+1200)

Odds To Win NFC

San Francisco 49ers (-110)
Green Bay Packers (+275)
Seattle Seahawks (+500)
Minnesota Vikings (+600)

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers

Saturday, January 11, 2020, at 4:35 p.m. ET
Levi’s Stadium
Santa Clara, CA

The San Francisco 49ers only had to watch the first game on Sunday to see who they were playing on Saturday, as the Minnesota Vikings went to New Orleans and beat the Saints in overtime. Kirk Cousins threw a walk-off touchdown pass to Kyle Rudolph to give the Vikings the win 26-20. The Vikings will now meet the top-seeded 49ers at Levi’s Stadium on Saturday, January 11, 2020, at 4:35 p.m. ET for the first game of the Divisional Round.

DraftKings Sportsbook opened the 49ers as 7-point favorites. Although the line did move to 49ers (-6.5), it’s back to 49ers (-7) as of Wednesday morning.

Dalvin Cook looked good for the Vikings against the Saints, rushing 28 times for 94 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also had 3 catches for 36 yards. With those numbers, both the rushing yards and receiving yards player props hit the over for Cook. He had a rushing player prop of 65.5 yards and a receiving player prop of 31.5 yards.

Adam Thielen was welcomed back for the Vikings, going for 129 yards on 7 receptions, including a 43-yard bomb that set up the game-winning touchdown in overtime. Thielen’s receiving yards player prop was 53.5 yards, so he easily hit the over on that.

The betting market had the Vikings pegged as big underdogs against the Saints, and things are shaping up similarly for their matchup against the 49ers, only they’re getting a little more respect on the point spread and moneyline after the huge road victory.

Things won’t get easier for them in the Divisional Round, as San Francisco boasts one of the best teams in the league, both offensively and defensively. Per Football Outsiders’ DVOA rankings following he first round of the NFL Playoffs, the 49ers are ranked 8th in offensive DVOA, 4th in defensive DVOA, and 4th overall.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens

Saturday, January 11, 2020, at 8:15 p.m. ET
M&T Bank Stadium
Baltimore, MD

The upset victory by the Vikings may be fresh in everyone’s mind, but let’s not forget about what the Tennessee Titans did on Saturday night. The Titans went into New England and beat the Patriots 20-13. It was a hard-fought battle that many are pegging as the end of the Bill Belichick and Tom Brady era in New England. The road won’t get any easier for Tennessee, as they now have to head to Baltimore to take on the dominant Ravens. This game is slated for Saturday, January 11, 2020, at 8:15 p.m. ET.

On Sunday night, DraftKings Sportsbook the Ravens were 9.5-point favorites over the Titans. As of Wednesday morning, that’s where the point spread remained.

When they beat the Patriots, the Titans did it on the back of powerful running back Derrick Henry, who ran 34 times for 182 yards and 1 touchdown. Henry also caught a pass and rumbled for 22 yards. Those numbers allowed the rushing yards and receiving yards player props to hit the over for Henry. He had a rushing player prop of 90.5 yards and a receiving player prop of 7.5 yards.

Ryan Tannehill did next to nothing in the air, throwing just 15 times and completing just 8 of those passes for 72 yards. Tannehill threw 1 touchdown and 1 interception, but a stellar performance from him simply wasn’t needed. With a passing yards player prop of 230.5, Tannehill came in well under.

The Patriots could only muster 307 totals yards of offense and their only touchdown was a reverse by Julian Edelman. Tennessee’s defense was very much up to the task against Brady, keeping him to just 209 yards passing and landing a game-sealing pick-six. Brady’s passing yards player prop was set at 259.5 yards for this game, so the under hit.

Although they didn’t have a game in the opening round, the Ravens still rank 1st on overall DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Henry will need to be great for Tennessee once again, going against Baltimore’s 2nd ranked defense per DVOA. On the other side, the Tennessee defense will need to be able to contain Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense that operates much differently than New England’s. The Ravens offense is ranked 1st in offense DVOA.

The Titans do rank 3rd in offense DVOA, so there seems like a good chance they’ll be able to do some damage on that side of the ball. But again, it’s likely going to need to be on the back of Henry. Tennessee then ranks 17th in defense DVOA. If there’s anything working in Tennessee’s favor, it’s the added confidence they’ll have from walking into Foxboro and taking down the Patriots.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs

Sunday, January 12, 2020, at 3:05 p.m. ET
Arrowhead Stadium
Kansas City, MO

Kicking off Sunday’s playoff action is Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans taking on Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Texans pulled a come-from-behind victory against the Buffalo Bills on Wild Card Weekend, winning 22-19 in overtime. At halftime, Houston was down 13-0 to Buffalo and the deficit was extended to 16-0 early on in the third quarter.

The Texans opened as big underdogs at DraftKings Sportsbook, and that’s where they remained halfway through the week, as the Chiefs were 9.5-point favorites.

After a slow start, Watson turned things around in the second half to finish with 247 yards passing and 55 yards rushing. He had both a passing touchdown and a rushing touchdown, with plenty of electric plays that brought his team back from being down 16-0. Watson had a passing player prop of 249.5 passing yards, so he went under there, but he hit the over on his 28.5 rushing yards player prop.

DeAndre Hopkins had 6 receptions for 90 yards as Houston’s leading receiver. Both of those hit overs on Hopkins’ player props. He has a receptions prop of 5.5 yards and a receiving yards player prop of 77.5 yards.

JJ Watt returned to spark the Texans defense. Although he only had 1 sack on the day, Watt’s presence was felt.

Arrowhead Stadium is a very tough place to play, and we all know the incredible offensive power that the Chiefs bring to the table. As reflected by the big points spread, Houston going into Kansas City is not going to be easy. If they start off as bad as they did against Buffalo, Houston probably won’t be coming back against Mahomes and company. Per Football Outsiders, Kansas City has the 4th ranked offense DVOA, which is really 3rd among the teams left because the New Orleans Saints have been eliminated, and then they have the 9th ranked defense DVOA. Houston ranks 18th in offense DVOA and 27th in defense DVOA.

 

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

Sunday, January 12, 2020, at 6:40 p.m. ET
Lambeau Field
Green Bay, WI

The final game of the Divisional Round features Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks travel to frigid Wisconsin to take on Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. The Seahawks got here after going on the road to defeat the Philadelphia Eagles 17-9 on Wild Card Weekend. The game is scheduled for Sunday, January 12, 2020, at 6:40 p.m. ET.

On Sunday night, DraftKings Sportsbook had the Packers as 4-point favorites over the Seahawks. Some other sportsbooks opened Packers (-3.5) but quickly moved to Packers (-4). On Wednesday morning, DraftKings Sportsbook had Packers (-4) as the point spread.

Seattle’s game against Philadelphia was clinched with a 36-yard bomb from Wilson to DK Metcalf with under 2 minutes remaining. On the day, Wilson threw for 325 yards and 1 touchdown, plus he ran the ball 9 times for 45 yards. Outside of Wilson’s rushing, Seattle only had 19 yards on the ground. With player props of 250.5 passing yards and 19.5 rushing yards, Wilson hit two overs there.

Metcalf had 7 receptions for 160 yards and 1 touchdown. He had a receptions prop of 3.5 receptions and a receiving yards prop of 58.5 yards, so both overs came in.

Seattle benefitted from Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz going out in the first half with a concussion, forcing backup Josh McCown into the game. McCown did what he could, but just couldn’t bring the Eagles back. It was a fitting end to Philadelphia’s season, as they battled injuries all season long and then ended up losing their starting QB in the playoffs.

Seattle comes into this one ranked 6th in offense DVOA and 19th in defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders’ metrics after Wild Card Weekend. They’ll match up against a Packers team that had a bye and is ranked 9th in offense DVOA and 16th in defense DVOA, so these teams aren’t too far off as rated by Football Outsiders. The determining factor could be health, as Seattle is banged up and jus went through a very tough game against Philadelphia while Green Bay sat at home and watched.

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