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Trends to know before betting the 2020 MLB Season

July 19, 2020

It looks as though we’ll be watching a 60-game MLB season this summer. In addition to 60 games, we’ll also get some postseason baseball that will likely finish up in September.

There isn’t too much data on a shortened season. Sure, we can break up a third of a season and look at numbers that way. We’re unsure of the different strategies that managers will look into and we also don’t know if every player will be healthy throughout the season. It’s going to be hard to bet the league in the first place. However, if the MLB has taken any advice from the CPBL, KBO, NPB, and other leagues in the US that have already started, things should be just fine.

Here are some 2019 trends that were profitable last season.

  • The New York Yankees went 94-43 SU as a betting favorite for a 68.6% winning percentage
  • The San Francisco Giants went a league-high 51-30 (63.0%) against the run line on the road
  • Betting the UNDER for every Cincinnati Reds game in 2019 would’ve gone 93-61-8 (60.4%)

When the Yankees were favorites they won two-thirds of their games. The Yankees were led by one of the best offenses in the league and went 54-22 against the AL East. When they were a straight-up home favorite, they won 71.6 percent of the time.

Teams with a successful offense seem to dominate as favorites no matter where they’re playing. The Yankees proved just that last season.

In the KBO, we’ve seen teams dominate after a loss, including the NC Dinos and LG Twins. The Minnesota Twins were that team last season. They went 43-20 after a loss, winning 68.2 percent of games. Again, when picking a team as a favorite, they must have a very good offense. The Twins led the majors in homers with 307 and had a very high on-base percentage throughout the year.

When a top hitting team is a favorite, there’s reason to believe the team will win the game. The MLB team that is a favorite usually has the better pitcher. Plus, they’ll also have the better offense. That’s a recipe for success.

The Yankees also did extremely well against the runline in 2019, going 99-72 against the run line which is good for almost 58 percent. When the Yankees were a home underdog, they went 7-5 covering those 12 games by four runs. The moral of the story is to take good hitting teams as home underdogs and you won’t be disappointed.

The San Francisco Giants, on the other hand, had a 51-30 record against the run line on the road last season. The Giants won 63 percent of their games on the runline on the road.

In 2019, if you took ever under in every Reds game, you would have finished with a 93-61-8 record. That’s over 60 percent where the under hit in a Reds game. The Reds improved their pitching staff with more strikeout material and ground ball rates. They were able to keep the ball in the ballpark and watch most games go under due to their poor offense and solid pitching staff.

The Pirates were a miserable pitching staff. That’s why the over hit 93-63-6 throughout the season. That’s almost 60 percent of the time. In their home games, the under hit 63.2 percent of the time. The Pirates had a team ERA of 5.18 and lacked much help pitching-wise all season long. Therefore, teams would hit lights out and hit the over.

General Recap

1. Good hitting teams with solid pitching will win most games as a favorite and should be considered when being a home underdog.

2. The under should be considered for a team that has a solid pitching staff that doesn’t excessively allow many home runs per game.

3. Teams that keep games close should be considered on the runline more times than not when on the road.

4. Teams with poor pitching should always be considered for the over while teams with top tier pitching and poor offense should always be considered for the under.

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