The preseason Coaches Poll was released on Thursday, which means it’s time for me to write the one post that tends to get me yelled at more than any other. It’s a tradition at this point. The Coaches Poll is released and the very next day I publish a Friday Five ranking the five most overrated teams in the poll.

In last year’s version, I included No. 4 USC, No. 19 Kansas State, No. 9 Michigan, No. 13 Auburn and No. 23 Texas. Of those five teams, three (Kansas State, Michigan and Texas) finished the 2017 season unranked in the final Coaches Poll. USC started at No. 4 and finished at No. 10. Auburn started at No. 13 and finished at No. 12, the only team that improved its ranking over the course of the season.

Well, we’re changing things up a bit this season. Not only am I ranking the five teams that are overrated in the Coaches Poll, but the five underrated teams as well. That’s right; you’re getting twice the Friday Five at the same price.

The methodology I’m using is pretty simple: where do I think these teams will finish ranked at the end of the season compared to where they’re ranked in this preseason poll. Also, I’m considering Ohio State “off the board” right now with Urban Meyer currently on administrative leave.

So which teams in this year’s preseason Coaches Poll do I believe are ranked a bit too high and a little too low? We’ll start with the five most overrated teams.

Overrated

5. No. 12 Michigan State: I’m including the Spartans on the list, but it’s somewhat nitpicky. Michigan State could finish the season ranked in the top 15. Hell, considering the questions surrounding Ohio State and Urban Meyer at the moment, the Spartans could make even more noise than I’m projecting them to.

I just think No. 12 is a touch too high.

Yes, this is a team that won 10 games last season, but even that 10-3 mark was only good enough to get them to No. 16 in the final Coaches Poll. Plus, if you look closer, Michigan State’s two biggest wins (against Michigan and Penn State) came by a total of seven points in games that were adversely affected by the weather. To me, this is a Michigan State team that overachieved a little bit last season and plays a schedule that could be more difficult this season.

4. No. 21 Texas: I had Texas at No. 1 on this list last season, and I’m bringing it back again for the same reasons. Texas has finished inside the top 25 just once in the last eight years, finishing at No. 19 in 2012.

Now, as I said last year when including Texas on the list, it’s entirely possible that the Longhorns could finish the season ranked much higher than where they’re beginning. There’s plenty of question marks in the Big 12 this season, and while Oklahoma is the clear favorite, there’s a lot of wiggle room behind the Sooners. Maybe 2018 is the season Texas finally shows up and plays to its capabilities.

Or maybe it’s just another season in which the Longhorns fail to live up to expectations. Both are possible, but recent results suggest which result is more likely.

3. No. 20 West Virginia: There are a lot of people hitching their bandwagon to West Virginia’s potential in 2018, and I get it. The Mountaineers have an explosive offense led by quarterback Will Grier. He joins seven other returning starters on offense, and the Mountaineers have seven more returning starters on defense. These are all reasons to be optimistic. Like I said when discussing Texas, there’s room for teams to maneuver in the Big 12 this season.

I’m just taking a more cautious approach with West Virginia for a few reasons.

While the Mountaineers have plenty of returning starters on offense as a whole, their offensive line doesn’t return a ton of experience. Using Phil Steele’s chart for career starts on the offensive line, we see that West Virginia has 65 starts. That’s good enough to rank 74th nationally and seventh in the Big 12. I tend to worry more about returning starters on the OL and DL more than I do at the skill positions.

More so than the OL, however, is West Virginia’s schedule. It’s not easy. There will be difficult road games against NC State, Texas Tech, Iowa State, Texas and Oklahoma State. Also, the final month of the season is a gauntlet as WVU will start on the road at Texas, play home against TCU the following week, hit the road again for Oklahoma State, and finish the regular season with Oklahoma in Morgantown with no byes between them.

2. No. 17 Virginia Tech: I have a bad vibe about this Virginia Tech team in 2018. The Hokies defense had already lost key players from last year’s team like Tremaine Edmunds, Tim Settle, Greg Stroman and Brandon Facyson to graduation or the NFL, and this spring it dismissed two more likely starters in Mook Reynolds and Adonis Alexander. I respect the hell out of what defensive coordinator Bud Foster has been able to do in his career, but his job could be extremely difficult in 2018.

On offense, the Hokies have little experience returning on the offensive line, and that worries me as well.

Finally, the schedule poses some problems. A lot of what would be considered Virginia Tech’s easier conference games come on the road, and they have to open the season with Florida State on the road. They also get Notre Dame in nonconference play. I don’t think the Hokies are in any danger of missing out on a bowl game or anything, but the closer I look at the situation, the harder it is for me to see this team finishing ranked in the top 20, if at all.

1. No. 16 TCU: There’s just so much to replace. The Horned Frogs get six starters back on defense, which isn’t a significant problem. Believe me; I don’t worry about Gary Patterson’s ability to put together a solid defense. The concern is the other side of the ball.

The Horned Frogs have two returning starters on offense. They’ve lost QB Kenny Hill. They’ve lost damn near their entire offensive line. Seriously, using Phil Steele’s career starts chart, there isn’t a Power Five team in the country with less returning starts on its offensive line than TCU’s 26. LSU is the closest to TCU with 35. I’ve always believed that to win the Big 12, you have to have a top defense, as it’s what separates you from the rest of the pack. The flip side of that, however, is that you need to be able to keep up with powerful Big 12 offenses as well. I look at this TCU offense right now and I have a hard time finding the confidence in this offense to be able to score when it needs to.

I think the Horned Frogs are due for one of those “reset” years like we saw them have in 2016. They went from 11-2 in 2015 to 6-7 the following year. Last season saw the Horned Frogs go 11-3, and while I don’t know if another six-win season is in the cards, I have a hard time envisioning this team finishing the year ranked as high as No. 16.

Underrated

5. No. 19 Florida State: I don’t think Florida State is going to finish much higher than No. 19 this season, but I do think there’s a good chance it’ll improve its stock as the year goes on. I get the feeling that this ranking is a reaction to last season, and I understand it, but last season wasn’t a typical season. Deondre Francois went down in the season opener against Alabama, and some people will tell you that Jimbo Fisher and his staff had thrown in the towel on the season. Whether that’s true or not, I don’t know, but Fisher left for Texas A&M after the season.

No matter the coaching situation, Florida State is a team that should be better in 2018, and while it’s not going to finish ahead of Clemson, it’s still going to be one of the better teams in the ACC. That’s usually enough to get you somewhere around No. 15.

4. No. 23 UCF: UCF is not going to go 13-0 again in 2018. Going undefeated through one season is incredibly difficult, to do so over consecutive seasons in this day and age is nearly impossible. Plus, you know, there’s that thing about the entire coaching staff leaving to go to Nebraska. That’s not a small factor!

Even with that, though, this is still a talented team with possibly the best player in its conference at quarterback. That’s a significant advantage for any program, and it’s a bigger one in a Group of Five conference. If you look at UCF’s talent and schedule, it’s not hard to envision this team going 10-2 and winning the AAC yet again. I don’t know if that’ll be enough to earn another New Year’s Six spot, but it’ll be enough to warrant a ranking higher than No. 23.

But Dan Mullen left plenty of groceries in the cupboard for Joe Moorhead, who has been a head coach before and did an excellent job taking Penn State to a higher level once he took over its offense. The Bulldogs have 17 starters (nine on offense, eight on defense) back from a team that went 9-4 last season. It also has a schedule that’s somewhat reasonable (as reasonable as any SEC West schedule can be).

2. No. 7 Wisconsin: OK, so in the intro, I wrote that I’m not considering Ohio State for either of these lists due to the variable surrounding Urban Meyer’s administrative leave. Well, just because I’m not considering Ohio State for a spot doesn’t mean I’m not considering what kind of impact Ohio State’s situation could have on others in the rankings.

And let’s say that problems at Ohio State can only be a good thing for Wisconsin. After all, this is a Wisconsin team that fell a touchdown shy of beating Ohio State for the Big Ten title last year and likely earning a playoff spot in the process.

In 2018, the Badgers will have to replace a lot of essential parts on defense, but they get nine starters back on offense, including the entire offensive line. In fact, no offensive line in the country has more starting experience than Wisconsin’s heading into the season. I expect this Wisconsin team to be just as good as last year’s version, with the vital difference being these Badgers will be playing a schedule that will impress voters. Long story short, Wisconsin is a darkhorse playoff team, and I think it’s going to finish in the top five.

1. No. 6 Washington: While Wisconsin is my darkhorse playoff team, Washington is a team I believe is a favorite to reach the playoff, and is just underrated at the moment. I have far fewer questions about the Huskies heading into 2018 than I do the No. 5 Oklahoma Sooners.

Washington is one of the more talented teams in the Pac-12 and it returns 17 starters. It also has the most experienced offensive line in the Pac-12, which is a factor that shouldn’t be overlooked. I look at this team and see the potential for it to be dominant in the Pac-12. It might lose its season-opener against Auburn, but even if it does, I don’t see that as being a death blow. There’s a good chance the Huskies will be favored in every other game they play aside from Auburn, and one could argue that they should be favored against the Tigers as well.

I understand why it isn’t ranked ahead of teams like Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia and Oklahoma at the moment, but Washingon will be in the top four come the end of the season.

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