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Week 3 College Football ATS Trends

September 16, 2020

Week 3 of the College Football season kicks off on Saturday Sept. 19 and we’ve...

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Week 3 College Football ATS Trends

September 16, 2020

Week 3 of the College Football season kicks off on Saturday Sept. 19 and we’ve identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups. We also have “Tech Edge” leans on the side or total for each game too.

Straight Up (SU), Against the Spread (ATS), Over-Under (O/U)

Click Here for Hank’s TOP 4 College Football Blowouts!

SATURDAY, SEPT. 19

UL-LAFAYETTE AT GEORGIA STATE (ESPN2, 12:00 P.M. ET)

  • Ragin’ Cajuns on a 17-7-2 spread uptick since early 2018 for Napier.
  • Panthers struggling as dog, only 4-10-4 in role since 2018.

Tech edge: UL-Lafayette, based on team trends.

FLORIDA ATLANTIC AT GEORGIA SOUTHERN (ESPN, 3:30 P.M. ET)

  • Taggart now at FAU, was only 8-13-1 in 1+ years vs. line at FSU, as his once-gaudy spread success had waned.
  • Owls covered 5 of 6 on road last season for Lane Kiffin, who posted a 10-4 spread mark in 2019.
  • GSU didn’t cover opener vs. Campbell, but still 10-4 vs. spread last 14 at Statesboro.

Tech edge: Georgia Southern, based on team trends.

WAKE FOREST AT NC STATE (ACC, 8:00 P.M. ET)

  • This Tobacco Road rivalry series has one of strongest home-team trends in ACC, with host 11-2 vs. points last 13 meetings.
  • NCS, however, enters 2020 having dropped 10 of last 11 against the number, and only 1-5 vs. points last six at Raleigh.
  • Wake has won and covered last two meetings but Deacs dropped all four vs. spread on ACC trail a year ago.

Tech edge: Slight to Wake Forest, based on recent NCS negatives.

UCF AT GEORGIA TECH (ABC, 3:30 P.M. ET)

  • Golden Knights covered all four vs. non-AAC foes in 2019, now 10-3 vs. spread last 13 vs. those entries.
  • Jackets struggled in Collins debut in 2019, only 3-8-1 vs. line, but did shock Florida State in opener last Saturday.
  • GT still just 1-6 vs. spread as host at Bobby Dodd Stadium/Grant Field LY.

Tech edge: UCF, based on team trends.

CHARLOTTE AT NORTH CAROLINA (ESPN3, 3:00 P.M. ET)

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  • 49ers improved last season but were still only 2-5 vs. line away from Charlotte.
  • Charlotte did cover 2020 opener at App State.
  • Mack Brown closed last season with a rush at UNC, winning and covering handily in last three, and win/cover steak now at 4 after success vs. Syracuse in opener.

Tech edge: UNC, based on team trends.

Click Here for Hank’s TOP 4 College Football Blowouts!

BOSTON COLLEGE AT DUKE (ESPN3, 12:00 P.M. ET)

  • Hafley takes over at BC. Under Addazio, Eagles were a pretty spunky underdog, 13-5-1 vs. spread in role the past three years.
  • Also 11-2 vs. spread last 13 as ACC visitor.
  • Cutcliffe sagged to 4-6-2 spread mark in 2019 but did cover 2020 opener at ND.
  • Duke 5-10-2 vs. ACC since 2018 (counts ND game).

Tech edge: BC, based on team trends.

MIAMI-FLA AT LOUISVILLE (ABC, 7:30 P.M. ET)

  • Canes disappointed last season but were 3-0 as underdog for Diaz.
  • Miami also entered 2010 on 11-19 spread skid, but did cover opener vs. UAB.
  • Cards in revenge mode after 52-27 loss at Hard Rock Stadium LY, but Sattterfield now 5-2 vs. spread at home since arriving, and his teams at App State and ‘Ville are 17-8-1 vs. spread since 2018.
  • Canes “under” 27-13 since 2017.

Tech edge: Louisville and slight to “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

SYRACUSE AT PITTSBURGH (ACC, 12:00 P.M. ET)

  • Old rivals to the days each campaigned as an Eastern Independent.
  • Pitt has covered last 3 and 9 of last 11 in series.
  • Cuse dipped to 4-8 SU and vs. line in 2019 after a smashing 2018, and gave up late cover in last week’s opener at UNC.
  • Orange only 2-7 as dog since last season.
  • “Unders” 24-10 in Pitt games entering 2020.

Tech edge: “Under” and Pitt, based on “totals” and team trends.

APP STATE AT MARSHALL (CBSSN, 1:30 P.M. ET)

  • Mounties entered 2020 on 22-8-1 spread uptick since late in 2017 season (though missed cover in opener vs. Charlotte), also 11-2 vs. number last 13 as visitor.
  • Herd entered this season 5-13 as home chalk since 2016, though did bomb outmanned EKU in 2020 opener.
  • Marshall was just 9-17 vs. spread across the previous two seasons.

Tech edge: App State, based on team trends.

LIBERTY AT WESTERN KENTUCKY (ESPNU, 12:00 P.M. ET)

  • WKU was 7-2-1 vs. spread down the stretch last season.
  • Tops surged in 2019 after loss to ‘Ville very similar to last week.

Tech edge: WKU, based on recent trends.

Click Here for Hank’s TOP 4 College Football Blowouts!

LA TECH AT SOUTHERN MISS (ESPN2, 7:30 P.M. ET)

  • If Skip Holtz a dog here note 19-8-1 spread mark in role since arriving at Tech in 2014, and 13-7-1 vs. spread last 21 away from Ruston entering Hattiesburg.

Tech edge: La Tech, based on team trends.

TEXAS STATE AT UL-MONROE (ESPNU, 7:30 P.M. ET)

  • Spavital only 3-8-1 vs. line in TSU debut last season, Bobcats 1-1 vs. line thus far in 2020.
  • TSU has lost four in a row SU vs. ULM but has covered in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
  • After Army loss, ULM only 8-19 vs. spread last 27 on line for Matt Viator since late in the 2017 campaign.

Tech edge:Slight to Texas State, based on series trends.

SMU AT NORTH TEXAS (CBSSN, 6:00 P.M. ET)

  • Metroplex rivalry. Home team has won and covered big the last three meetings, all decisions by 22 or 23 points!
  • Sonny Dykes just 1-6 vs. spread laying points away from Ford Stadium for SMU. But UNT entered this season on 3-15 spread skid.

Tech edge: Slight to UNT, based on series home trends.

NAVY AT TULANE (ABC, 12:00 P.M. ET)

  • After Mids entered 2020 on 14-3 spread uptick, they were destroyed by BYU in opener.
  • Navy still 20-10 as visiting dog for Niumatalolo since 2009, and 18-10 last 28 as road dog.
  • Wave, however, covered all six as host LY.

Tech edge: Slight to Navy, based on extended trends.

TROY AT MIDDLE TENNESSEE (ESPN2, 4:00 P.M. ET)

  • Blue Raiders were 9-4 as chalk in 2017-18 but fell back to 1-3 in role a year ago.
  • Troy enters this season 2-5 vs. line its last seven as visitor.

Tech edge: Slight to MTSU, based on team trends.

SOUTH FLORIDA AT NOTRE DAME (USA, 2:30 P.M. ET)

  • Jeff Scott the new coach at USF, trying to improve Bulls from 3-8 spread mark last 11 as dog under Charlie Strong.
  • USF also just 2-8 last 10 as DD dog.
  • Irish off superb 9-4 spread mark in 2019, including 5-2 as South Bend chalk, though failed to cover big price in Duke opener.

Tech edge: Notre Dame, based on team trends.

Click Here for Hank’s TOP 4 College Football Blowouts!

TULSA AT OKLAHOMA STATE (ESPN, 12:00 P.M. ET)

  • Teams have not met regularly in recent years, but OSU scored 59 or more in winning and covering three meetings between 2010-17, and also covered last year’s battle at Tulsa when scoring 40.
  • Golden Hurricane 5-1 vs. spread away in 2019 and 3-1 as road dog, the latter more reminiscent of Montgomery’s first couple of years with Tulsa when 6-1 as visiting dog in 2015-16.
  • OSU, however, on 13-4 spread uptick since late 2018, and Gundy has remarkably covered last 14 non-Big 12 games dating to 2016!

Tech edge: Ok State, based on team and extended series trends.

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