September 28, 2022
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September 28, 2022
Since 2009, 10 of 13 Super Bowl champs had a winning record against the spread through three games, and as a group, that set of teams covered 71.8% of games (outright: 79.5%). Even wilder? Remove two fully healthy Tom Brady Super Bowl seasons in New England (2014 and 2018, thought being here that a full healthy Brady in the midst of a dynastic run isn’t exactly a normal handicapping situation) and that rate jumps to an absurd 78.8% (outright: 84.8%).
OK, let’s keep pulling. With those two Brady seasons removed, only three of 11 measured teams had a negative point total compared to the over/under through three games. So, through three weeks, recent trends suggest that our future Super Bowl champion has a winning record (both outright and ATS) along with a positive total margin. Great, so who are those teams?
A weird list? Little bit. So how do we pick where to place a futures bet? A little projecting.
The Ravens grade out as a very reasonable Super Bowl pick through three weeks (+1400, T-6th highest odds).
I can hear you: “Whatever, Miami beat them head-to-head!” True. But they did so after being outgained by 70 yards through three quarters, something that happens roughly 18% of the time. I’m not sold. These recent trends like the Ravens as the best value in the Super Bowl markets through September. As for how every team looks through three weeks …
Dolphins ATS: 3-0
What we know about the Dolphins: That’s 10 covers in 12 games for the Fins, with under tickets cashing in eight of those games.
Bengals ATS: 1-2
What we know about the Bengals: That’s four straight unders in Bengals games, this coming on the heels of a 7-2-1 stretch for overs.
Vikings ATS: 1-2
What we know about the Vikings: The Vikings are just 1-4 ATS over their past five road games, with that lone win being a 17-9 win over the Bears in Week 15 last season … as a seven-point favorite.
Saints ATS: 0-3
What we know about the Saints: A rough start, but a welcomed calendar flip. Over the past five seasons, only the Steelers (76.5%) have covered October games at a higher rate than the Saints (72.2%).
Bills ATS: 2-1
What we know about the Bills: The Bills have been road favorites in seven games since the beginning of last season and five of them have gone under the total.
Ravens ATS: 2-1
What we know about the Ravens: Each of Baltimore’s past four games have seen the total be at least 11 points different than the projection. If you have a feel for game flow, there’s value to be had!
Bears ATS: 1-1-1
What we know about the Bears: The Bears are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 road games against the NFC.
Giants ATS: 2-1
What we know about the Giants: Not one, not two, not three … seven straight covers for the G-men when on a short week. That’s the case this week with the Bears coming to town after the Giants hosted the Cowboys on Monday night.
Browns ATS: 0-2
What we know about the Browns: All three Cleveland games have gone over the total this season, giving them more overs in the 2022 season than they had over the final two months of the 2021 season.
Falcons ATS: 3-0
What we know about the Falcons: The Falcons covered at home in Week 1 against the Saints as 5.5-point underdogs (27-26 loss). They haven’t covered consecutive home games since doing so in Weeks 9 and 12 in 2020.
Jaguars ATS: 2-1
What we know about the Jaguars: The Jags have now covered three of four after failing to cover a single time in a seven game stretch.
Eagles ATS: 2-1
What we know about the Eagles: The Eagles are home favorites this weekend. Their last ATS loss in such a spot came in Week 7 of 2020 (over that stretch: 4-0-1 ATS).
Jets ATS: 1-2
What we know about the Jets: If you’re fading the Jets ATS, it’s important to note that each of their past four ATS losses have come in tandem with the under hitting.
Steelers ATS: 2-0
What we know about the Steelers: When their game kicks off Sunday, the Steelers will have gone 327 days since the last time the won a game outright in which the over hit. If you like the Black and Gold in this spot, recent trends suggest pairing it with the under.
Titans ATS: 1-2
What we know about the Titans: The Titans have covered three in a row against the Colts, and in four of their past five meetings with the divisional rival, over tickets have come through.
Colts ATS: 1-2
What we know about the Colts: The Colts started out 0-2 ATS, but grabbed their first win, ATS and outright, with a dramatic win against the Chiefs.
Chargers ATS: 2-1
What we know about the Chargers: The Bolts got back on the over train in Week 3, giving them seven overs in their past nine.
Texans ATS: 2-0-1
What we know about the Texans: The Texans are 3-1-1 over their past five games, but have won exactly zero of those games outright.
Seahawks ATS: 1-2
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What we know about the Seahawks: Since the beginning of last season, unders are 7-2 when Seattle plays on the road.
Lions ATS: 3-0
What we know about the Lions: The Lions haven’t just covered all three games this season, they are a remarkable 10-2 ATS over their past 12. Their last ATS loss? Week 17 of last season … against the Seahawks.
Commanders ATS: 1-2
What we know about the Commanders: If you’re out on the Commanders, you’re out on points. In five of Washington’s past seven failures to cover, the under has come through.
Cowboys ATS: 2-1
What we know about the Cowboys: Over tickets have cashed in seven of Dallas’ past 10 games on short rest, including all three such games a season ago.
Cardinals ATS: 1-2
What we know about the Cardinals: The Cardinals were 8-1 ATS on the road last season, and while it wasn’t a work of art, they are 1-0 ATS this season away from home this season (an overtime win at Vegas as a 5.5-point underdog).
Panthers ATS: 1-2
What we know about the Panthers: The Panthers covered at home for the first time in 371 days last week and will try to make it two in a row this weekend.
Broncos ATS: 1-2
What we know about the Broncos: All three Broncos games have gone under the total by more than 10 points this season.
Raiders ATS: 0-3
What we know about the Raiders: The Raiders have failed to cover three straight games this season, something they did not once, not twice, but three times in 2021. The good news? None of those streaks extended to a fourth game.
Patriots ATS: 0-2-1
What we know about the Patriots: The Patriots pushed in Week 2 at Pittsburgh, but they generally don’t play games that are close to the spread. Other than that effort, none of their games since last November have been within seven points of the spread.
Packers ATS: 2-1
What we know about the Packers: Does three straight unders for the Packers sound odd? It shouldn’t. From Weeks 4-10 last season, they rattled off seven straight unders.
Chiefs ATS: 1-2
What we know about the Chiefs: Here we go again. The Chiefs opened last season 2-7 ATS and then promptly covered six straight once the public began to sour on them.
Buccaneers ATS: 2-1
What we know about the Buccaneers: Fire up the Tom Brady bedtime stats. His Bucs are 2-8 ATS with unders going 7-3 (five straight hits) when playing regular season games in prime time.
Rams ATS: 1-2
What we know about the Rams: Don’t expect fireworks on Monday Night Football. Five of the Rams’ past six prime-time games have gone under the projected total.
49ers ATS: 1-2
What we know about the 49ers: After dropping seven straight ATS at home, the 49ers have covered each of their past five in front of their loyal fans (under tickets have cashed in the past three).