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The best time of the betting year is finally here:

March Madness!

Midwest Region

Auburn vs. New Mexico State

FREE Pick WINNER! New Mexico State +7.5

Talk about two teams getting white-hot at the right time. Auburn just rattled off four in a row against the SEC’s finest, capped off by a 20-point demolition of Tennessee in Nashville. New Mexico State won its conference tournament in even more convincing fashion, blowing out Grand Canyon by 32 in the WAC final Saturday night in Las Vegas. This showdown between two hyper-athletic teams who live and die with the three-ball should deliver one of the more exciting opening-round tilts this weekend. In many ways, these two teams are mirror images of each other—they let it fly from deep, they feast on the offensive glass and they blanket opposing ball handlers with waves of defensive pressure.

For Auburn, the explosive offense is ignited by a pair of dynamos in Jared Harper and Bryce Brown, who will go toe-to-toe with two carbon copies of themselves in NMSU’s AJ Harris and Terrell Brown. While Chris Jans will rotate in as many as five different guards to the perimeter rotation, Harris and Brown are the bedrock of the Aggies’ backcourt. They are both stout on-ball defenders, but slowing down Harper and Brown requires a cohesive five-man effort defensively. Harper is especially deadly in pick-n-roll action and Bruce Pearl leans heavily on his game-breaking speed off the dribble to generate defensive breakdowns. Typically, he’ll bring any one of their versatile forwards well beyond the three-point line to set the initial screen, which gives Harper acres of space to maneuver and get a full head of steam going downhill toward the rim.

Here’s where an interesting dichotomy comes into play. From an eye-test perspective, the Aggies’ wings and forwards are tailor-made to defend quicker guards in space off pick-n-rolls, particularly Eli Chuha, Johnny McCants and Trevelin Queen. However, the data tells a slightly different story—per Synergy, New Mexico State grades out in the 36th percentile nationally in points per possession against PnRs, a slightly concerning figure against the high-octane Tigers offense.

Despite that minor red flag, everything else about this matchup sets up well for the Aggies. Auburn’s defense is inherently high-risk, high-reward with the steal-seeking guards and wings constantly in “gamble-mode.” New Mexico State is one of the most unselfish teams in college basketball and should exploit the overextended Auburn defense with tic-tac-toe passing for a plethora of open looks. When Auburn struggled this year, it was because it let shooters run free on the perimeter, evidenced by their 327th-ranked defensive three-point attempt rate, per kenpom.com. Not staying tightly connected to shooters is a recipe for disaster against the Aggies, who had six different guys hit 20 or more threes this season.

What makes New Mexico State especially tough to cover is the inside-out balance, with those aforementioned guards and wings often revolving around Ivan Aurrecoechea in the post. The 6’10″ Spanish import is a monster on the block and could terrorize the Tigers up front, particularly against lineups where Dion Wiley is on the bench. Eli Chuha will surely get his as well, but Aurrecoechea’s thick frame could really give the Auburn frontline fits.

The ultimate determining factor in this matchup is the coaching advantage I’m allotting to the Aggies. While Bruce Pearl should be commended for fine-tuning Auburn to be playing its best ball of the season at the right time, Chris Jans has delivered time and time again in big games when the stakes are highest. Just ask Kansas fans how ready he had the Aggies when they visited Lawrence earlier this season, coming just three points shy of beating the Jayhawks in Phog Allen. With many lessons learned from last year’s early tournament exit, expect Jans and his coaching staff to be well-prepared with an airtight game plan geared toward slowing down Auburn’s blistering-fast offense.

South Region

Kansas State vs. UC Irvine

FREE Pick WINNER! UC Irvine +5.5

With the Big West’s games often tipping so late at night, the public has missed out on getting to watch UC Irvine regularly. And it’s a shame, because the Anteaters are damn good. I love their depth (nine players average at least 16 minutes per game), the upperclassmen backcourt of Max Hazzard and Evan Leonard (who combined to score 23.6 PPG on the season) and the strong coaching job by Russell Turner.

But the top thing to know about the Anteaters: It’s really tough to score on this UC Irvine team. It has allowed opponents to shoot just 40.6% on two-point attempts (per KenPom), including 46.5% on attempts at the rim (per hoop-math.com). Both of those percentages are tops in the country. The Anteaters don’t give up many open looks from the perimeter either, registering the 15th-lowest opponent three-point attempt rate in the country (32.7%).

The Wildcats rank in the 20th percentile in terms of points per possession in half-court offense per Synergy (which you can expect a lot of with UC Irvine ranking 296th in adjusted tempo, and Kansas State at 342), and they could struggle even more if they don’t have star Dean Wade. The senior forward is the team’s second-leading scorer (12.9 PPG), best three-point shooter (41.8%) and best FT shooter (78.9%). Wade is also one of the better passers on the team (2.8 assists per game, third on KSU), as he’s able to set up his teammates with great looks if a defense is focusing too heavily on him.

Kansas State coach Bruce Weber told Yahoo! Sports that Wade will be evaluated on Monday by the team’s physician. But he’s still currently in a walking boot and has been getting treatment 3-to-4 times a day. Weber said, “I hope we have him,” but this doesn’t sound like a great sign for his availability in this one.

According to Hoops Lens, Kansas State has recorded 1.06 PPP with Wade on the floor this season. That number falls all the way down to 0.93 PPP when he’s not playing. The two major differences with Wade on and Wade off? Effective FG% (51.4% on, 47.1% off) and turnover rate (15.8% on, 19.6% off). He’s clearly an extremely important player for this group, and arguably the difference between an early-round exit and a dark-horse Elite Eight run (like last year).

Kansas State is fantastic defensively, as it ranks fourth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. But if there is a weakness on that side of the ball, it’s how Kansas State defends the interior. The Wildcats have allowed opponents to shoot 62.8% on attempts taken at the rim (tied for 275th in CBB). If you dig deeper, they rank in the 21st percentile in terms of PPP in all of college basketball defending post-ups, per Synergy. That’s really bad news against a UC Irvine team that runs post-ups 13.9% of the time, which is the ninth-highest frequency in the country.

But if Wade is out, his absence will be felt on the defensive end too. Kansas State allows 0.87 PPP with him in the game, compared to 0.99 with him not playing. His 6’10” frame would be crucial in this matchup, as Irvine rolls with two big men on the floor at the same time between 6’8” Tommy Rutherford, 6’9” Collin Welp (an incredibly unique freshman talent), 6’9” Elston Jones and 6’10” Jonathan Galloway (Irvine’s all-time leader in rebounds). With Wade out, Kansas State has often had to go small with 6’9” Make Mawien the only other player taller than 6’5” who has been in for at least 20% of the team’s minutes this season. So whether it’s defending post-ups or keeping Irvine off the offensive glass (the Anteaters’ 33.6 OREB% ranks 32nd in CBB), the Wildcats are going to have major trouble against Irvine’s size.

The Anteaters also have the travel advantage since Friday’s game is taking place in San Jose. As I mentioned before, these two teams will both play at slow paces, and it’s tougher to cover a spread of 5.5 when there’s fewer possessions in the game. Kansas State’s poor FT shooting (66.4%, 314th in CBB) doesn’t help either. While I’m also a huge fan of Northeastern and Yale, UC Irvine is my favorite upset pick in the round of 64 of teams seeded No. 13 or higher. The 5.5 points is just an added bonus.

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