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College Basketball

January 24, 2023

The Oklahoma Sooners head to Fort Worth to take on the No. 11 TCU Horned Frogs in NCAA hoops action on Tuesday night.

Both schools are trying to find some consistency in a very competitive Big-12 conference and while the Horned Frogs are coming off a highly-impressive road win against Kansas, the Sooners have dropped three of their last four.

Oklahoma vs TCU picks and predictions

There are some concerns about laying six points with the home side here. After all, the Oklahoma Sooners have a tendency to keep things close and the TCU Horned Frogs could be in a letdown spot after a massive victory in Lawrence.

However, this line certainly doesn’t appear inflated by recency bias. Keep in mind that the Sooners were 10.5-point underdogs on the road against the Jayhawks two weeks ago and were 5-point away dogs against a middling Texas Tech team just before that.

Oklahoma is 2-5 against Big-12 foes and the two teams they defeated (Texas Tech and West Virginia) are a combined 1-13 in conference play and the Sooners barely edged both of them. 

This is also a poor matchup for the Sooners who tend to be sloppy with the ball, rarely get to the charity stripe, and have seen their perimeter shooting regress lately. 

The Sooners are 255th in turnover rate (19.3%) and will be harassed by a tough Horned Frogs defense that has the 16th-best opponent turnover in the country. The Frogs do an excellent job of pressuring opposing ball handlers while also fouling on defense at the 19th-lowest rate in the country.

The Sooners already don’t get to the free throw line much and that issue could be exacerbated. The Sooners also entered last week having shot a sizzling 37.3% from deep but they went a combined 9-36 against Oklahoma State and Baylor and now face a TCU squad that limits foes to 29.6% shooting from long range.

Oklahoma has been heavily reliant on Grant Sherfield to generate offense and if the Frogs’ stingy perimeter defense can keep him in check, force turnovers, and push the tempo, they’ll cover this spread. But that won’t happen. TCU is in for a LET-DOWN!

The Pick: Oklahoma +6

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