Archived: Week 9 College Football Odds Report
October 25, 2019
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October 25, 2019
There are some fairly big games slated for Week 9 of the college football schedule as we approach the end of the season just four weeks away. Typically, there are a handful of really large spreads for AP Top 25 teams, but this week there are only two of note: Arkansas at No. 1 Alabama (-32) and Boston College at No. 4 Clemson (-33.5).
The largest line movement among the ranked teams thus far in Week 9 is No. 5 Oklahoma at Kansas State where the Sooners opened as a -21 favorite and have climbed to -24. Meanwhile, the largest total movement is in the Thursday night game between No. 16 SMU and Houston where the total opened at 65.5 and has moved two points to 67.5.
Below is a list of all the spreads and totals for all the ranked games in Week 9.
|No. 16 SMU at Houston||+14||67.5|
|No. 13 Wisconsin at No. 3 Ohio State||-14||50|
|No. 5 Oklahoma at Kansas State||+24||58|
|No. 20 Iowa at Northwestern||+10.5||37.5|
|No. 21 App State at South Alabama||+25||53|
|No. 9 Auburn at No. 2 LSU||-11.5||58.5|
|No. 6 Penn State at Michigan State||+7||44|
|No. 15 Texas at TCU||+1.5||61|
|Maryland at No. 17 Minnesota||-17||56|
|Oklahoma State at No. 23 Iowa State||-10.5||64.5|
|Arkansas at No. 1 Alabama||-32||55|
|Boston College at No. 4 Clemson||-33.5||58.5|
|No. 8 Notre Dame at No. 19 Michigan||-1||50|
|No. 24 Arizona State at UCLA||+4||55.5|
|California at No. 12 Utah||-18||38.5|
|Washington State at No. 11 Oregon||-14||64|
Lines to Monitor
TV Coverage: FOX, 3:30 p.m. ET
Perhaps the fishiest line of the Week 9 schedule saw the No. 15 Texas Longhorns open as a 1-point underdog on the road against the TCU Horned Frogs. The line has moved in the predicted direction with Texas now the favorite. The Longhorns needed a last-second field goal from Cameron Dicker to secure a 50-48 home triumph over Kansas in Week 8, while the Horned Frogs suffered their second consecutive road defeat, falling 24-17 at Kansas State.
If the line remains the same or continues to trend in favor of Texas, this will mark the second straight year that the home team has been a dog in this head-to-head series. The home team has covered in three of the last four contests between these two and the Longhorns haven’t been favored over the Horned Frogs since 2016, closing as a 2.5-point dog last year and at +7.5 the year prior.
This line moved 2.5 points early on with everyone pounding Texas when they saw it as an underdog or even a slight favorite. This feels extremely fishy as the Longhorns’ two defeats this season were seven-point losses to then-No. 6 LSU in Week 2 and then-No. 6 Oklahoma in Week 7. Meanwhile, TCU has fallen to SMU, Iowa State and Kansas State, each of which has spent time in the AP Top 25, while beating three teams that haven’t been ranked.
TV Coverage: ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET
The Michigan Wolverines are coming off their second loss of the season to another ranked opponent. Michigan fell at then-No. 13 Wisconsin 35-14 in Week 4 and at then-No. 7 Penn State 28-21 last week. That being said, the Wolverines won their lone home game against a ranked foe, topping then-No. 14 Iowa 10-3 in Week 6. Meanwhile, Notre Dame is 1-1 against ranked squads in 2019, falling 23-17 at then-No. 3 Georgia in Week 4 and beating then-No. 18 Virginia at home the week after.
The Fighting Irish have won three of the last four meetings against the Wolverines since 2012, covering in three of those four games as well. This line has moved in favor of Notre Dame, but we haven’t seen the Irish as a road favorite against Michigan since 2011 when they were a 3.5-point favorite and lost 35-31.
Michigan is able to hang with defensive-minded teams but has struggled against high-octane offenses. The Irish have allowed the 15th-fewest points per game this season and also score the 13th-most ppg. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line draw to EVEN or we may even see Notre Dame as a slight favorite.
Key Numbers for Week 9
TV Coverage: ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET
Penn State is riding a high after collecting back-to-back wins over ranked opponents and now looks to remain unbeaten against previously ranked Michigan State. While the Nittany Lions are soaring, the Spartans are falling, losing consecutive games to ranked foes, first at then-No. 4 Ohio State 34-10 followed by a defeat at then-No. 8 Wisconsin two weeks ago (Sparty is coming off a bye week).
History hasn’t been on the Nittany Lions’ side recently against the Spartans, as Penn State has gone 1-4 SU and ATS against Michigan State since 2014. The closing line between these two schools has also been more than a touchdown in each of the last five meetings, with Penn State being favored in each of the last three by an average line of -11.5.
This line has paused at -7 for Penn State, right at that touchdown mark. When the Nittany Lions played stronger defensive squads in Pitt, Michigan and Iowa, they had an average winning margin of 6.33 and Michigan State has allowed 20.9 points per game this season. That being said, the Spartans were smashed by an average of 31 points in their two losses to ranked squads.
TV Coverage: FOX, 12 noon ET
Wisconsin killed much of the excitement in what could have been a preview of the eventual Big Ten championship game. The Badgers looked terrific through their first six games, outscoring their foes 452-29, including four shutouts, but then fell last week 24-23 at Illinois in perhaps a look-ahead game. Meanwhile, Ohio State has continued to roll, bringing a perfect 7-0 record into this week’s game and looking for its second win over a ranked opponent in 2019.
The Buckeyes have absolutely dominated the Badgers recently, going 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS with an average winning margin of 14.7 since 2007. That being said, Ohio State has only beaten Wisconsin by more than 14 points once since 2010 and that was a 59-0 triumph in 2014; the last two meetings resulted in seven- and six-point victories for the Buckeyes. I wonder if this line would have been much closer had Wisconsin taken care of business last week against Illinois. Perhaps that’s why the line hasn’t budged.