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In addition to Los Angeles, Week 15 has two other double-digit favorites, and a third may join them if the Titans-Lions line climbs. We are at that stage of the season where some teams who are motivated to clinch division titles or improve their playoff seeding are facing unmotivated teams looking to move on from the 2020 season.

Here is a look at the early NFL Week 15 lines and their predicted movement throughout the week.

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Thursday, December 17th — 8:20 PM EST

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (-3.5)
O/U 54.5

Predicted Movement: Where the money lands on the Chargers-Raiders game this week will depend on how bettors respond to Las Vegas firing their defensive coordinator with three games to go. While some will view it as a sign that they know they are still very much in the mix for a playoff spot, others will take the view that they are waving the white flag after a 44-27 blowout loss to the Colts. After wins over the Saints, Chiefs, and Browns highlighted the first part of Las Vegas’s season, they have not beaten a team with a winning record over the last six weeks. That span also includes a 43-6 loss to the Falcons and a last-second miraculous win over the winless Jets. Seeing as bettors tend to take a “what have you done for me lately” approach, this line is more likely to move to -3 than -4 or higher.

Saturday, December 19th — 4:30 PM EST

Buffalo Bills (-6.5) at Denver Broncos
O/U 50.5

Predicted Movement: The Buffalo Bills have been on national television the last two weeks, and they responded with convincing wins over the 49ers and Steelers. They get their third-straight game in the national spotlight against a Broncos team that is just 2-4 at home. The betting public is starting to believe in Bills quarterback Josh Allen after some accuracy struggles early in his career. Though both teams are a formidable 8-5 ATS this season, the fact that Buffalo is so close to clinching their first AFC East title since 1995 should have bettors siding with the Bills and pushing this line to at least the key number of seven.

Saturday, December 19th — 8:15 PM EST

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-8.5)
O/U 51.5

Predicted Movement: Perhaps no team was a bigger winner in Week 14 than Green Bay. Their win, coupled with the Saints’ loss, rendered the Packers the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The Panthers laid an egg against Denver, as they were down multiple starters due to COVID-19 and contact tracing. There is no news yet on running back Christian McCaffrey’s status, but all indications suggest that his 2020 season is not over. The number with the most volatility is the total, as the 10-day forecast calls for snow showers on Saturday morning in Green Bay. If the weather pattern changes and results in more accumulation than originally projected, this total will plummet.

Sunday, December 20th — 1:00 PM EST

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5) at Atlanta Falcons
O/U 50.5

Predicted Movement: In somewhat of a scheduling quirk, this is the first meeting between these division rivals this season, and their rematch comes two weeks later. Reports suggest Buccaneers running back Ronald Jones may have fractured his pinky, so it will be worth monitoring his status throughout the week. The Falcons have won six of the last seven games against the Buccaneers, but this is Tom Brady’s first action in this rivalry. Three of Atlanta’s last four losses have come by five points or less, and sharps would likely buy back on Atlanta if the spread were to move in Tampa Bay’s favor early in the week.

San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Dallas Cowboys
O/U 45.5

Predicted Movement: A rivalry that once gave us Joe Montana/Steve Young versus Troy Aikman will now give us Nick Mullens vs. Andy Dalton. San Francisco’s three-point advantage should not hold up long, considering they have lost five of their last six games. Despite the fact that Dallas is an NFL-worst 3-10 ATS, they are 3-2 ATS in their last five games. Seeing as the 49ers are 0-4 SU in their last four games as favorites, this line should move off the key number of three in Dallas’s favor sooner or later.

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans (-9.5)
O/U OFF

Predicted Movement: This total remains off the board as we await the results of Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford’s X-rays for a rib injury that forced him to leave last week’s game in the fourth quarter. If Stafford is ultimately ruled out and Chase Daniel is named the starter, there is no doubt this line would creep into the double digits, as bettors would flood to back Tennessee.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-7)
O/U 52.5

Predicted Movement: The Colts opened as seven-point favorites over the Texans despite the fact that Houston was 10 yards away from the game-winning touchdown in their first matchup two weeks ago. However, oddsmakers know that bettors have a short-term memory and will look at Indianapolis’s blowout of Las Vegas and Houston’s blowout loss at Chicago when betting this week. Thus, this sets up as an ultimate “pros vs. joes” game, as sharps will surely back a divisional underdog in a rematch. If Brandin Cooks and David Johnson are once again ruled out for Houston this week, that would be the biggest reason this line would move off the key number of seven in the Colts’ favor.

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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
O/U 41.5

Predicted Movement: After New England was obliterated 24-3 on national television by the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night, it is a wonder that this spread opened so low. The Rams are third in the league in scoring defense, while Miami is second. Bettors are likely wondering how the Patriots will score in this game. The Dolphins are a different team than the one New England beat 21-11 in Week 1. This line should move through the key number of three once books get flooded with Miami money.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
O/U 46

Predicted Movement: For the first time in a long time, Bears fans can feel good about their quarterback play after Mitchell Trubisky’s 267-yard and three-touchdown performance against the Texans. While the scoreboard says that the Vikings lost by 12 to the Buccaneers, they had chances to win the game if not for kicking woes that saw them miss three field goals and an extra point. Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in their last four games, and their last cover came in a 19-13 Week 10 win against the Bears. Given that Chicago has scored 30-plus points in back-to-back weeks, the total is the most likely number to tick up, especially since weather won’t be a factor.

Seattle Seahawks (-5) at Washington Football Team
O/U 43.5

Predicted Movement: It’s surprising to see a spread and total posted for this matchup, considering the uncertainty of Washington quarterback Alex Smith’s calf injury. Washington has won and covered in each of their last four games, but none of that will matter to bettors if Dwayne Haskins is forced to start this week. If you think there is a chance Smith misses the game, bet on Seattle now before the line ticks up.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens (-12.5)
O/U OFF

Predicted Movement: This total remains off the board while Baltimore is coming off a Monday night game against the Browns. Jacksonville had been a very competitive football team of late before last week’s disappointing 21-point loss to the Titans. However, there will likely be some Jaguars optimists this week, as Gardner Minshew will replace Mike Glennon. Minshew led Jacksonville to their only touchdown drive last week, and he should keep this line stays under 14.

Sunday, December 20th — 4:05 PM EST

New York Jets at Los Angeles Rams (-17)
O/U 44.5

Predicted Movement: As I mentioned in the lede, Los Angeles has not been this big of a favorite since 2001. Oddsmakers are struggling to find the right number on Jets’ lines these days, as they are always prone to a blowout loss. The Jets failed to cover as 16.5-point underdogs against Seattle last week and 20-point underdogs against the Chiefs earlier in the season. The Jets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs of 10 or more points, and the fact that the Rams are coming off more rest does not do them any favors. Since this is New York’s second consecutive road game on the West Coast, don’t be surprised if we see the line move to -17.5 in the future.

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals (-6.5)
O/U 48.5

Predicted Movement: Despite the Eagles entering this game with a 5-8 ATS record, bettors will react to the Jalen Hurts-led upset of the Saints when wagering on this game. This will surely be one of the rare cases where the book will be rooting for the favorite, given how much of a public team the Eagles are. There should not be enough betting support on Arizona to get this line to the key number of seven, but the line likeliest to move is the total. The Eagles are now employing a run-first, read-option offense under Hurts, and that typically leads to limited possessions and lower scoring games. Thus, this total should tick down some before kickoff, especially considering Arizona just held the Giants to seven points on the road.

Sunday, December 20th — 4:25 PM EST

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at New Orleans Saints
O/U 51.5

Predicted Movement: Is this the week that Drew Brees resumes quarterback duties for the New Orleans Saints? If he does, look for this total to skyrocket. The Chiefs just scored 33 points on Miami’s second-ranked scoring defense, despite a “subpar” effort by Patrick Mahomes’s standards, as he threw three interceptions. Meanwhile, New Orleans’s defense just allowed 246 yards on the ground to Philadelphia in rookie Jalen Hurts’s first start, so there is less optimism than usual surrounding their defense entering this game.

Sunday, December 20th — 8:20 PM EST

Cleveland Browns (-4.5) at New York Giants
O/U OFF

Predicted Movement: This total remains off the board since Cleveland is coming off a Monday night game against the Ravens. All the momentum the Giants created after a four-game winning streak was completely erased after a 26-7 home loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Thus, bettors will be left to wonder if this is the same-old Giants team that spent most of the season at the bottom of the NFC East standings. The Browns are one of the NFL’s best rushing teams, but the Giants rank seventh in the league in stopping the run. Thus, this total will likely be bet down to the low-40s if it opens higher than that at the start of the week.

Monday, December 21st — 8:15 PM EST

Pittsburgh Steelers (-12.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
O/U 40.5

Predicted Movement: The narrative surrounding this game is fascinating. Are the Steelers ready to “get right” against the Bengals after suffering their first two losses of the season? Or have the Steelers finally been exposed, and are their struggles over the last two weeks just a sign of things to come? Either way, Pittsburgh dominated Cincinnati 36-10 at home five weeks ago, and that result will resonate with bettors this week. The Bengals have topped 10 points just once in the last five weeks, so this spread may get close to the key number of 14 despite Pittsburgh’s recent woes.

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