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September 20, 2018
https://www.hankwins.com/phillies-still-alive-in-nl-east-big-series-with-braves-starts-tonight-odds-and-preview/
The Atlanta Braves, losers in four of their last five, play host to the Philadelphia Phillies, winners in four of their last six, at SunTrust Park. The Braves have won seven of the 12 meetings with their NL East rivals this year and opened this game as a -150 favorite with Philadelphia coming back at +130. Toeing the rubber are Vince Velasquez and Kevin Gausman with the total opening at 8.5 runs.
Vince Velasquez (9-11, 4.50 ERA) has been roughed up down the stretch of the MLB season. The 26-year-old had a middling 4.05 ERA at the end of August and has seen that balloon up to 4.50 heading into tonight’s contest as he has been tagged for 12 earned runs in just 11 innings this month. Additionally, the righty has surrendered three or more earned runs in five of his last seven starts. The numbers have been slightly better on the road this year, though, as he has a respectable 3.64 ERA in his 14 away outings, but the Phillies are just 4-10 SU in those games.
Velasquez gets the ball for the fifth time this season against the Braves and is looking to put some rough starts behind him. Philadelphia is 0-4 SU when the righty makes the trip to the mound vs Atlanta and he holds a 7.41 ERA in those appearances. In two starts at SunTrust Park, he was ambushed for a combined seven earned runs in 8.2 innings for a 7.27 ERA. The Phillies are 2-6 SU in Velasquez’s eight career starts vs the Braves and he sports a 4.60 ERA.
The Braves acquired Kevin Gausman (10-10, 3.92 ERA) from the Orioles at the MLB trade deadline, and he has pitched well with his new club. Atlanta is 6-2 SU with the Colorado native on the mound, and he sports an impressive 2.61 ERA over that span. The numbers have been even better at SunTrust Park, as the Braves are a perfect 4-0 SU behind Gausman and his ERA is 2.45. The 27-year-old has had a rough September, allowing a home run in each of his three starts, and has a 4.41 ERA through the month.
The Braves and Phillies haven’t seen each other since late May when they contested a three-game series with an average combined score of 3.66 and Bovada has tonight’s game opening at 8.5 runs. Since Gausman joined the Braves at the end of July, the total has gone UNDER 8.5 runs in six of his eight starts. Meanwhile, the Phillies have gone UNDER 8.5 runs in seven of Velasquez’s last 11 road outings. Lastly, both clubs rank in the middle of the pack in the majors for runs scored in the last 30 days, with Atlanta sitting in 14th and Philadelphia in 17th.
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17-3 Baseball Run
Win: Braves +108 over Cardinals
Win: Dodgers -170 over Rockies
Win: Cubs -102 over D-Backs
Win: Dodgers-Cardinals OVER 7.5
Win: Oakland-Baltimore Under 9
Win: Twins-Royals OVER 9.5
Win: Nationals +115 over Phillies
Win: Angels -170 over Rangers
Loss: Rangers -115 over Angels
Win: Arizona-Padres under 8
Win: Mets +134 over Dodgers
Loss Atlanta +120 over Boston
Win: Mariners – A’s OVER 9
Win: Oakland -130 over Seattle
Win: Rockies -160 over Padres
Loss: Indians -115 over Tampa Bay
Win: Boston -185 over White Sox
Win: Padres +108 over Rockies
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