Archived: Hank’s Early NFL Leans
September 30, 2020
https://www.hankwins.com/hanks-early-nfl-leans/
4638
January 29, 2024
The San Francisco 49ers opened as 2-point favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs in...
https://www.hankwins.com/chiefs-vs-49ers-superbowl-preview/
4627
January 16, 2024
Team ATS Record Cover % MOV ATS +/- Cal St Nrdge 13-2-0 86.7% 8.7 +6.4 Troy 11-2-1 84.6%...
https://www.hankwins.com/college-basketball-ats-records-2/
4623
January 16, 2024
Team ATS Record Cover % MOV ATS +/- Okla City 26-12-1 68.4% 8.7 +5.9 Philadelphia...
https://www.hankwins.com/nba-ats-records-4/
4591
November 3, 2023
We’re into the 2024 portion of the 2023-24 NBA regular season, and the Boston...
https://www.hankwins.com/nba-title-odds/
4534
August 21, 2023
In the past few years, the sports gambling industry has completely taken off and...
https://www.hankwins.com/us-stadiums-with-sportsbooks/
4513
August 17, 2023
As the NFL season begins, we can figure out which teams have the easiest and hardest...
https://www.hankwins.com/nfl-strength-of-schedule/
September 30, 2020
https://www.hankwins.com/hanks-early-nfl-leans/
Let’s keep up the hot start and I offer one big tip as we head to Week 4: Play the overs. Until they can show me otherwise, the NFL defenses stink this year.
EARLY NFL LEANS
This is the dog game of the week, and it happens to be one that is on national television. Oh, boy. One of these 0-3 teams is a likely winner — there could be a tie — but who will it be? I’ll go with the home team to wake up as Sam Darnold plays well and new Broncos starter Brett Rypien does not.
Pick: Jets 24, Broncos 17
The Cardinals are coming off a bad loss, and now must take a long trip to the East Coast. The Panthers have played much better on defense than expected, but I think Kyler Murray will get back on track here and have a big day. Cardinals should take it but have a feeling Panthers will get the cover.
Pick: Cardinals 35, Panthers 32
This will be Nick Foles in as the starter for the Bears, which should help the offense. But the Colts defense has played well the past two weeks, which will make it a challenge. Look for the Colts to win a tight road game.
Pick: Colts 23, Bears 21
The Bengals tied last week at Philadelphia, which is a victory of sorts. But this is a good chance to get a real win. The Jaguars are having issues on defense, which should make for a big game for Joe Burrow. Bengals win it & cover.
Pick: Bengals 33, Jaguars 27
The Cowboys are back home, but they better hope their defense shows up. It’s been awful. The Browns can run the ball, which could be a problem. And if they can effectively run it that will open up play action for Baker Mayfield. Should be high scoring affair with the Browns getting the Cover.
Pick: Cowboys 35, Browns 31
The Saints didn’t look good in losing at home to the Packers, especially on defense. This is a tough road game to try and turn it around. Matthew Stafford played well last week, and I think he will in this one. But the Saints will score as well. They win a tight, high-scoring game.
Pick: Saints 31, Lions 30
This is a game matching two 0-3 teams, but one has looked far worse than the other. That’s the Vikings. Last time out on the road they were dominated by the Colts. The Texans have played a brutal schedule, and they will take it out on the Vikings.
Pick: Texans 34, Vikings 21
This is the longest trip in the NFL, which is always a challenge. Miami is also rested after playing Thursday. Big edge to the Dolphins. But that’s it. They won’t be able to slow Russell Wilson. But they will put up some points. Look for a back door cover here.
Pick: Seahawks 23, Dolphins 20
The Titans COVID-19 situation bears watching to see if this game is played. If it is, it’s a game between two 3-0 teams, one with a good defense in Pittsburgh and the other with a bad defense in the Titans. Tennessee has won three close games, and this will also be a close one. One difference: Steelers take it behind a late field goal.
Pick: Steelers 27, Titans 24
This is a long trip for the Chargers, and the question is who will be playing quarterback. It won’t matter. Tampa Bay is playing well on defense and they will shut down the Chargers offense. Tom Brady will play well enough against a good Chargers defense.
Pick: Bucs 28, Chargers 21
The Ravens are coming off a bad showing in losing to the Chiefs. But Washington is the perfect tonic. Lamar Jackson and the offense will get back on track and should win an easy one. But even if they are up by 20 there could be a back door here.
Pick: Ravens 34, Washington Football Team 21
The Rams are home after two long road trips, which should be a comfort of sorts. The Giants are the team taking the long trip. They also aren’t playing well. The Rams are playing well and that shows up. But they may be flat here after a shootout with the Bills.
Pick: Rams 26, Giants 16
It’s always a treat when these two get together, even if Tom Brady isn’t a part of it anymore. The Chiefs are coming off an impressive showing at Baltimore and I think that carries over here. New England is great taking away one thing on offense, but this is an offense with many. Chiefs take it.
Pick: Chiefs 37, Patriots 24
The Bills are riding high behind Josh Allen, but this is a long trip against a team coming off a loss. This is a be-careful game for the Bills. But I think Allen will win a shootout with Derek Carr as the Bills stay undefeated.
Pick: Bills 33, Raiders 31
The Eagles haven’t played well yet. Carson Wentz is struggling in a big way. Can he turn it around here? It won’t be easy, even against a banged-up 49ers team. The 49ers take it in a close one.
Pick: 49ers 26, Eagles 21
The Falcons are coming off two major chokes in their past two games. They haven’t looked good on defense at all. The Packers are rolling on offense with Aaron Rodgers and I expect that to stay that way. Packers big.
Pick: Packers 37, Falcons 26