Archived: College Football Betting Angles
August 31, 2021
https://www.hankwins.com/college-football-betting-angles/
4638
January 29, 2024
The San Francisco 49ers opened as 2-point favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs in...
https://www.hankwins.com/chiefs-vs-49ers-superbowl-preview/
4627
January 16, 2024
Team ATS Record Cover % MOV ATS +/- Cal St Nrdge 13-2-0 86.7% 8.7 +6.4 Troy 11-2-1 84.6%...
https://www.hankwins.com/college-basketball-ats-records-2/
4623
January 16, 2024
Team ATS Record Cover % MOV ATS +/- Okla City 26-12-1 68.4% 8.7 +5.9 Philadelphia...
https://www.hankwins.com/nba-ats-records-4/
4591
November 3, 2023
We’re into the 2024 portion of the 2023-24 NBA regular season, and the Boston...
https://www.hankwins.com/nba-title-odds/
4534
August 21, 2023
In the past few years, the sports gambling industry has completely taken off and...
https://www.hankwins.com/us-stadiums-with-sportsbooks/
4513
August 17, 2023
As the NFL season begins, we can figure out which teams have the easiest and hardest...
https://www.hankwins.com/nfl-strength-of-schedule/
August 31, 2021
https://www.hankwins.com/college-football-betting-angles/
| Event | Angle |
| Notre Dame @ Florida State 09-05 |
For Domers, this matchup recalls the rousing 31-24 upset that the Lou Holtz Fighting Irish scored over Florida State in a battle of 1 vs. 2 at South Bend in November of 1993. Six-point underdog ND had FSU and Heisman winner Charlie Ward blanked into the second half before the Noles stirred and had a chance to tie or even win the game in the final seconds before Irish DG Shawn Wooden knocked down a Ward pass at the goal line. The win turned out a bit bittersweet for the Irish, who surrendered the top spot in the polls back to FSU the following week when shocked 41-39 at home by Boston College. Note that ND is 8-3 vs. spread away from South Bend the past two seasons, and has beaten FSU each of the past two years, though failing to cover a near-3 TD spread in last year’s 42-26 cruise at South Bend. Meanwhile, the Noles enter 2021 on 3-9 spread skid and have failed to cover their last four openers. |
| BYU @ Arizona U 09-04 |
This will be the Jedd Fisch coaching debut for UA, and if our Pac-12 sources are to be believed, the reaction to the Fisch hire was most jubilant in…Tempe, where rival ASU was concerned the Wildcats might hire San Jose State’s up-and-comer Brent Brennan instead! Fisch has spent the past three years in the NFL on staffs of Sean McVay (Rams) and Bill Belichick (Patriots) after a one-year run as o.c. at UCLA, where Fisch became the interim HC for the final two games after Jim Mora was dismissed. Arizona, which faded badly in the winless pandemic season of 2020 for Kevin Sumlin, enters 2021 on a 2-10 spread skid. This will be the first of what is slated to be annual “Vegas Kickoff Classics” at the almost-new Allegiant Stadium adjacent to the south end of the Las Vegas Strip. |
| New Mexico State @ San Diego State 09-04 |
Note that San Diego State will once again be playing its home games 110 miles to the north this season in Carson at the Dignity Health Park, formerly the StubHub Center and for three years the temporary home of the NFL Chargers after their move from San Diego. The MLS L.A. Galaxy also calls the stadium its home. The Aztecs fared decently in their makeshift residence a season ago, winning and covering 3 of 4 in front of no fans in Carson. SDSU is hopeful of moving back home for the 2022 season at the new Aztec Stadium adjacent to the site of old Qualcomm/SDCCU Stadium, which has been dismantled. Meanwhile, NMSU was buried in last week’s opener by nearby UTEP after skipping 2020 entirely due to Covid (the Aggies did play two scrimmage/games in the spring at El Paso against future WAC opponents Tarleton State and Dixie State). |
| Nevada @ California 09-04 |
This matchup from across the Sierras renews for the first time since 2012, when Chris Ault’s Nevada beat Jeff Tedford’s Cal for the second time, 31-24. That win at Berkeley came two years after a 52-31 Wolf Pack romp in Reno behind Colin Kaepernick in 2010. Nevada is now 5-1 its last six as dog since late in the 2019 season for Jay Norvell, and has covered 4 of its last 6 vs. non-MWC foes. Cal’s season was disrupted perhaps more than any in the Pac-12 by Covid last fall, but nonetheless enters 2021 having covered just 2 of its last 8 laying points. |
| LSU @ UCLA 09-04 |
This is LSU’s first trip to California since 1984, when a Dalton Hilliard & Gerry James-led Tigers team throttled Rose Bowl-bound USC at the L.A. Coliseum, 23-3. A crucial season awaits UCLA HC Chip Kelly, who was 0-6 SU in non-Pac 12 games since taking over the Bruins in 2018 (no non-league games a year ago) prior to last week’s Week Zero blowout of Hawaii. Kelly’s teams since 2015 (NFL Eagles and 49ers, plus UCLA) were also just 18-44 SU, and 25-37 vs. the line, entering 2021 before that win over the Rainbow Warriors. Note the return match in 2024 at Baton Rouge has been moved from its original opening night, August 31 to September 21 instead after LSU recently announced it will be facing USC in Las Vegas to open the ‘24 campaign. Note that the Tigers, trying to dodge Hurricane Ida, left Baton Rouge for Houston last Saturday, where they were expected to practice for three days before flying to Los Angeles. |
| So Mississippi @ South Alabama 09-04 |
USM fans don’t need to be reminded that HC Jay Hopson bailed out on the Golden Eagles after a humbling 32-21 upset loss to USA in the 2020 opener. Co-o.c. Scotty Walden took over on an interim basis for the rest of the season before taking the HC job at Austin Peay; Will Hall, most recently the o.c. for Willie Fritz at Tulane, takes over in Hattiesburg, while counterpart Kane Wommack (recently d.c. at Indiana) also makes his debut for the Jaguars. Note that USA covered only 1 of last 6 in 2020 preceding HC Steve Campbell’s ouster (Kane Wommack now on board from Indiana to take the controls). |
| Tex San Antonio @ Illinois 09-04 |
Bret Bielema has a head start in his debut season with Illinois after a rousing 30-22 win over Nebraska in last week’s lidlifter. Meanwhile the Roadrunners improved for first-year HC Jeff Traylor LY and were 4-2 vs. line away as well as 5-2 as dog. UTSA also 10-3 last 13 as dog since mid 2019, also 12-6 last 18 on board since mid 2019, though rare games vs. a Power 5 foe lately (1-0 in role LY if counting BYU). Note the Illini was never favored last season, and was chalk just 8 times (4-4 spread mark) in the Lovie Smith era the past five seasons. |
| Georgia @ Clemson 09-04 |
Though these sides have only tangled four times since 1995, it was once a spirited, annual regional rivalry that also served as the launching pad for Clemson’s 1981 national crown when upending defending title winner Georgia 13-3 in an early-season game at Death Valley. Danny Ford’s fired-up Tiger defense forced a staggering nine giveaways that afternoon as it kept future Heisman winner Herschel Walker (guilty of three of the fumbles) in relative check, holding him to 111 hard-earned yards on 28 carries, but none of his customary big runs, while QB and future Atlanta sports talk host Buck Belue tossed a numbing five picks. It was also the second game for the Tigers in their “lucky” orange pants, which they have worn in most of their big games since (the first orange pants game came in a 27-6 win in 1980 over South Carolina and Heisman winner George Rogers). Though we at TGS also fondly recall the 1983 renewal at Death Valley when the game ended in a 16-16 tie, with respective PKS Donald Igwebuike (Clemson) and Kevin Butler (Georgia) missing from 68 and 66 yards, respectively, on the last two plays of the game! Note that Dabo Swinney has not been anything special vs. the line lately in openers (3-4 vs. line last seven), though is 15-4 vs. line in “featured” games (either ACC title, playoff or bowl) since 2012, and this featured showcase of opening weekend vs. Kirby Smart’s Georgia seems to qualify within that definition. |
| Florida Atlantic @ Florida 09-04 |
FAU, which only began playing football in 2001 and didn’t ascend to top-level status until 2004, gets its second-ever shot at in-state big boy Florida after Howard Schnellenberger’s last Owls team in 2011 was buried 41-3 at Gainesville. Prior to last season, the Gators were 7-1 vs. line in reg-season play against non-SEC foes during 2018-19 with Dan Mullen. Mullen was 8-2 laying DDs in 2018-19 though 3-4-1 in role last season. Note that Willie Taggart’s teams at Florida State and FAU are a combined 11-19 vs. the spread since 2018. |
| Oregon State @ Purdue 09-04 |
Only the second-ever series meeting and first trip to Purdue for OSU since 1967 when Dee Andros’ legendary “Giant Killers” shocked the 2nd-ranked Boilermakers, 22-14. (Check out our featured story this week for me info about this clash!) The 20-point dog Beavers used their ultra-physical style and “Power-T” full-house backfield to pound for 237 rush yards and finally took the lead for good on a 4-yard TD smash by bulldozing 240-lb. FB Bill “Earthquake” Enyart in the 4th Q., while PK Mike Haggard booted a trio of field goals. OSU would subsequently throttle Washington State, tie second-ranked UCLA, beat top-ranked USC, and survive the old Civil War vs. Oregon in the greatest month of football in Corvallis annals and earn a place in Pacific Northwest sports lore. Moving to the present day in 2021, note that the Beavers are 12-4 their last 16 as a dog for Jonathan Smith, while Purdue dropped its last five vs. the spread in the 2020 Covid season for HC Jeff Brohm. |
| Syracuse @ Ohio 09-04 |
Note that veteran Ohio HC Frank Solich, 76, stepped down in mid-July for health reasons. Offensive coordinator Tim Albin was immediately named as the permanent replacement and given a four-year contract. Prior to last season’s pandemic campaign in which the Bobcats played only three games, Solich had reached the postseason in the previous five and nine of the preceding ten seasons. Solich leaves Albin a program that has won 17 of its last 22 outright in Athens and has covered 7 of its last 10 vs. non-MAC BCS opposition. |
| Akron @ Auburn 09-04 |
This should be the Bryan Harsin coaching debut at Auburn, assuming the ex-Boise State mentor is beyond Covid protocols that have recently sidelined him. He might not want to miss this chance to face the visiting Zips, who have won just once overall and covered a mere three times in 19 tries for HC Tom Arth since the 2019 campaign. |
| San Jose State @ USC 09-04 |
First meeting since the 2009 opener when USC cruised 56-3 at the Coliseum. Trojan fans might recall that matchup wistfully as it was the first game of the final season of the magical Pete Carroll era for SC, which actually began against the same SJSU in the 2001 opener when Troy prevailed, 21-10. Now, however, keep an eye on the Spartans, who were unbeaten 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 vs. line as they were MWC champs in the abbreviated 2020 campaign before losing in the Las Vegas Bowl to Ball State. After romp past Southern Utah in Week Zero, SJSU now 15-5-1 vs. spread for Brent Brennan since late 2018, plus covering its last 8 as a dog and its last 3 vs. Power 5 foes. |
| UL Lafayette @ Texas 09-04 |
Expect Texas to be on alert in HC Steve Sarkisian’s debut game, as the same UL-Lafayette that dumped Iowa State in last year’s opener as a 12 ½ -point dog enters Austin. Note that the Ragin’ Cajuns have covered seven straight in regular-season action vs. non-Sun Belt foes, while Texas covered only 2 of its last 11 (2-8-1) as host to close the Tom Herman era. |
| Central Michigan @ Missouri 09-04 |
Note that CMU is 14-6 vs. the line since HC Jim McElwain arrived prior to the 2019 campaign, and has covered 18 of its last 26 overall as a road dog as it enters Columbia this weekend. |
| Louisiana Tech @ Mississippi St 09-04 |
La Tech slipped a bit last season, covering just 2 of 6 in recently-profitable dog role, but note that HC Skip Holtz was 19-8 getting points in the preceding six campaigns. meanwhile, Mike Leach teams at Washington State and Mississippi State have dropped 17 of their last 26 pointspread decisions. |
| Indiana @ Iowa 09-04 |
Some dueling spread positives here in this crucial Big Ten opener. The Hoosiers covered all seven regular-season games in 2020 (before losing bowl game to Ole Miss), part of a 17-7 spread run that intense HC Tom Allen brings into 2021. Meanwhile, the host Hawkeyes are 17-9-1 vs. the spread at Iowa City since 2016 under Kirk Ferentz, now the dean of major college coaches and the only remaining coach to have been in the same job in the last millennium (first year 1999). |
| Miami Ohio @ Cincinnati U 09-04 |
These nearby rivals play for the Victory Bell (though we have suggested the Skyline Chili Trophy instead) in what is the nation’s oldest non-conference rivalry, having met for the first time in 1888! It’s been all Cincy lately, as the Bearcats have won the last 14 meetings, covering 10 of those, suggesting Miami wasn’t too bothered by last year’s renewal getting bypassed due to the pandemic (the RedHawks played just three games last season). |
| Alabama @ Miami Florida 09-04 |
Prior to the Covid season of 2020, Bama had won 13 straight (covering 12) openers for Nick Saban, many of those in neutral-site games like this vs. Miami. Saban is also 9-4 vs. line last 13 vs. non-SEC foes. These schools haven’t met since the national title showdown at the Sugar Bowl following the 1992 season, when Gene Stallings’ Bama whipped Dennis Erickson’s Miami by a 34-13 count, intercepting the Canes’ Heisman-winning QB Gino Toretta three times and featuring stellar work by Tide DB George Teague, who returned one of the interceptions for a TD and authored the play of the game when stripping Miami WR Lamar Thomas from behind nearing the conclusion of what would have been an 89-yard TD play! This one will be played in Atlanta, where the Tide has won 13 in a row outright. |
| Fresno State @ Oregon 09-04 |
Fresno had spread success in the Jeff Tedford years against Pac-12 opposition, covering all four chances, though didn’t play a non-MWC game in the pandemic season of 2020 under first-year HC Kalen DeBoer. (FSU did win and cover big in 2021 opener vs. UConn last week.) This rivalry recalls an odd scoreline from 1982 when Jim Sweeney’s Bulldogs took a 10-4 decision at Eugene, one of only three games in the TGS era in which a college team scored 4 points (Miami- Fla over Florida 31-4 in 1987, and Iowa over Penn State 6-4 in 2004, being the other two). |
| Rice @ Arkansas 09-04 |
An old Southwest Conference rivalry renews here as onetime league rivals Rice and Arkansas renew hostilities for the first time since 1991, the Razorbacks’ last year in the league before moving to the SEC. Arkansas won that one 20-0 to complete a dominant series stretch in which the Porkers only lost twice to the Owls between 1974-91. Aside from a mere few wins in the last 20 years of the rivalry before Arkansas switched leagues, Rice’s series highlight of the past half-century was perhaps the 24-24 tie it managed at Houston in 1971, Bill Peterson’s lone year as HC before moving to the NFL Oilers the next season. The Razorbacks were fortunate to pull level that November 6, as a 15-yard late hit penalty by Owls DB Carl Swierc on a last-second fair catch of a punt moved the ball to the Rice 28, from where Hogs PK Bill McClard booted a 45-yard field goal on the final play of the game to level matters. That result effectively kept Arkansas out of the Cotton Bowl, as Texas assumed a half-game lead in the conference race that day and held on until the regular-season tape. |
| Stanford @ Kansas State 09-04 |
Prior to winning and covering their last three games (all in harrowing fashion) on the road last season, Stanford had dropped eight consecutive spread decisions away from the Farm under David Shaw, whose Cardinal have dipped from some dizzying heights in recent years. Note that K-State didn’t win outright its last five games a season ago but HC Chris Klieman is 15-8 vs. spread the past two seasons. This game at Jerry Jones AT&T Stadium in Arlington. |
| Army @ Georgia State 09-04 |
These teams did meet two years ago in Atlanta, with Georgia State ending up a 28-21 winner as a slight 4-point underdog. The Panthers held on that night thanks to a late interception by CB Quavian White after West Point had reached the GSU 3-yard line. That result dropped the Black Knights to 3-4, and their first time under .500 since the end of the 2015 season. Note that Jeff Monken’s Army side is just 1-4 vs. spread last 5 as visitor. |
| Oklahoma @ Tulane 09-04 |
Oklahoma makes its first appearance in New Orleans since the Sugar Bowl at the conclusion of the 2016 season, when the Sooners topped Auburn 35-19. The previous trip to the Big Easy was also a fun one when dumping 15-point favorite Alabama 45-31 in the Sugar following the 2013 campaign. Those games were in the downtown Superdome, however; this is OU’s first trip to Tulane’s Yulman Stadium, which opened in 2014, and where Willie Fritz has had some good success with the Green Wave, covering 10 of the last 11 as host. |
| Penn State @ Wisconsin 09-04 |
Not since Rip Engle’s 1964 Nittany Lions roared down the stretch to win their last five games has a Penn State team experienced the sort of in-season turnaround it did a year ago, when James Franklin’s troops recovered from a dismal 0-5 break from the gate in the pandemic season to win and cover their last four convincingly, all wins by double-digit margins to at least take a bit of momentum into the offseason. Penn State has not faced Wisconsin since 2018 when it beat the Badgers 22-10 in Happy Valley, the most-recent of a 4-game Nittany Lions series win streak. |
| UL Monroe @ Kentucky 09-04 |
Terry Bowden makes his coaching debut at ULM, where the Warhawks have nowhere to go but up after after a disastrous 0-10 SU mark in 2020, a season in which they not only lost every game, but never held a lead! |
| Michigan State @ Northwestern 09-03 |
After scoring three straight wins as an underdog against Mark Dantonio-coached MSU teams from 2016-18, Pat Fitzgerald’s NU has lost two in a row to the Spartans, including a shocking 29-20 setback as 13 ½ -point chalk at East Lansing last November 28, which also proved to be the Wildcats’ only spread setback of the season. MSU had entered that game off of back-to-back losses vs. Iowa and Indiana in which it was outscored 73-7, but outscored NU 13-0 across the last 12 minutes, adding the final tally on the last play of the game when a desperate Wildcat lateral play from deep in their own end of the field was eventually recovered by MSU’s Kalon Gervin in the Cats’ end zone for a game-ending Spartan touchdown. NU lost the turnover battle 4-1 as QB Peyton Ramsey was under siege all afternoon in a rare complete effort by the Spartans, who were only 2-5 SU and against the line in the debut season of HC Mel Tucker. MSU enters 2021 on a 3-12 spread skid in regular-season games. |
| Old Dominion @ Wake Forest 09-03 |
This will be the debut game at ODU for new HC Ricky Rahne, a former James Franklin aide at Penn State who couldn’t bring his team on the field a year ago as the Monarchs were one of a handful of teams to skip the 2020 season entirely due to the pandemic. Note that Wake Forest has laid 30+ only four times this millennium, all vs. lower-division opposition (Towson in 2018, Presbyterian in 2013, Gardner-Webb in 2011, and Presbyterian again in 2010). Dave Clawson Demon Deacons have covered their last 7 and 9 of their last 10 at now-called Truist Field Winston-Salem. |
| Duke @ Charlotte 09-03 |
Rare shot for Charlotte against one of the instate big boys from the ACC (and the first time getting any of them at home), though the 49ers hardly took advantage of one of those chances last Halloween when smoked 53-19 by the Blue Devils in Durham. Duke was already out to a 24-0 lead just three minutes into the 2nd Q as RBs Mataeo Durant (104 YR) and Deon Jackson (101 YR) each cleared the century mark while both scored a pair of rush TDs. Though the Blue Devils have tailed off the past couple of seasons, not e that HC David Cutcliffe has nonetheless covered the spread in 11 of his last 12 chances vs. non-ACC, BCS-level foes. |
| North Carolina @ Virginia Tech 09-03 |
Note that the road team has covered the last three meetings in this ACC Coastal rivalry, and VPI enters the 2021 campaign on a 13-20 pointspread downturn for under-fire HC Justin Fuente. |
| Ohio State @ Minnesota U 09-02 |
First meeting of these Big Ten rivals since 2018, when OSU won 30-14 in Columbus but didn’t cover as 30-point chalk. Interestingly, the Buckeyes failed to cover each of the three meetings vs. the Golden Gophers (also 2014 & 15) during the Urban Meyer era, though note that OSU is 6-1 vs. the line as Big 10 visitor since 2019 for Ryan Day. These sides no longer meet near-annually since the Big Ten split into divisions nearly a decade ago, though there is some interesting history between these programs, none more than the 1961 season when Big Ten winner OSU declined an invitation to the Rose Bowl in Pasadena (written about on TGS pages in the past), with Murray Warmath’s second-place Minnesota accepting the bid instead and ending up a 21-3 winner over UCLA. That marked a second straight, and the only two, Rose Bowl visits by the Golden Gophers, who skirted the Big Ten’s no-repeat rule as the conference did not have an official agreement with the Rose Bowl for a couple of years in the early 60s, and technically “replacing” the league champ Buckeyes. |
| Bowling Green @ Tennessee U 09-02 |
Things have not gone well at Bowling Green since Dino Babers resigned before the 2015 Camellia Bowl vs Georgia Southern (which the Falcs lost 58-27). Post-Dino, BGSU is 12-42 SU and 15-39 vs. the line, and brings an 8-game SU losing streak for beleaguered HC Scott Loeffler into 2021. Making things worse at Doyt Perry Stadium were more than three dozen departures after the chaotic 2020 campaign that was shortened to five games by the pandemic, one in which the Falcs didn’t come closer than 25 points in a painful, winless campaign. Loeffler’s BGSU also has failed to cover all nine spread decisions on the road since he took charge in 2019. Meanwhile, Josh Heupel arrives from UCF to pick up the pieces at UT from the disgraced Jeremy Pruitt regime, which continued a more than half-century trend in Knoxville in which every coach has either been fired (Derek Dooley, Butch Jones, Pruitt), forced out awkwardly (Bill Battle, Johnny Majors, Phil Fulmer), or left on his own accord after running afoul of the fan base (Doug Dickey and Lane Kiffin) since the late 60s. |
| East Carolina @ Appalachian St 09-02 |
Group of Five New Year’s Six bowl hopeful App State covered just 2 of 10 as regular-season chalk a year ago in the maiden run for HC Shawn Clark before laying a 56-28 beating on North Texas in the Myrtle Beach Bowl. Note that ECU is a respectable 9-5 as dog since early 2019 for Mike Houston, who has also covered 11 of last 17 on board. |
| South Florida @ NC State 09-02 |
Rough first trip around the track for socially-conscious HC Jeff Scott at USF a year ago, as the Bulls sagged to 1-8 SU for the former Dabo Swinney Clemson aide. Meanwhile it was a much-needed revival at NC State for under-fire HC Dave Doeren, thought to be on the hot seat a year ago with new AD Boo Corrigan in the fold at Raleigh, but responding instead for an 8-4 mark and Gator Bowl appearance last fall, including covers in 4 of 5 at Carter Stadium. |
| Boise State @ Central Florida 09-02 |
Near-annual “Group of Five” contenders both welcoming new head coaches in 2021 (Andy Avalos at Boise State, Gus Malzahn at UCF). Ex-Auburn HC Malzahn will be trying to reverse a pointspread slide the Golden Knights endured toward the end of the Josh Heupel regime when they covered just 4 of their last 14 games, and just 1 of their last 7 as Bounce House chalk. Avalos, who for seven years was on Bronco staffs under Chris Petersen and Bryan Harsin, returns to the land of the blue carpet after a stint as d.c. at Oregon. Note that Boise has covered 5 of its last 7 chances in somewhat-rare dog roles since 2017. |
| Temple @ Rutgers 09-02 |
Looking for an Angle by Bruce Marshall, Goldsheet.com Editor This “Turnpike” Rivalry extends back to the late 40s, though there was once nearly a quarter-century lull (1954-77) between meetings, with the current eight years between matchups the longest series hiatus since. These two were also among the Big East’s original football lineup in 1991 and would play annually thru 2004. Rutgers made some upgrades a year ago as HC Greg Schiano returned to the program, though the Scarlet Knights were favored just once (and failed to win or cover that one vs. Illinois), and have been favored just seven times since 2016. |