Archived: 2022 MLB Underdog Report
May 5, 2022
https://www.hankwins.com/2022-mlb-underdog-report/
4638
January 29, 2024
The San Francisco 49ers opened as 2-point favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs in...
https://www.hankwins.com/chiefs-vs-49ers-superbowl-preview/
4627
January 16, 2024
Team ATS Record Cover % MOV ATS +/- Cal St Nrdge 13-2-0 86.7% 8.7 +6.4 Troy 11-2-1 84.6%...
https://www.hankwins.com/college-basketball-ats-records-2/
4623
January 16, 2024
Team ATS Record Cover % MOV ATS +/- Okla City 26-12-1 68.4% 8.7 +5.9 Philadelphia...
https://www.hankwins.com/nba-ats-records-4/
4591
November 3, 2023
We’re into the 2024 portion of the 2023-24 NBA regular season, and the Boston...
https://www.hankwins.com/nba-title-odds/
4534
August 21, 2023
In the past few years, the sports gambling industry has completely taken off and...
https://www.hankwins.com/us-stadiums-with-sportsbooks/
4513
August 17, 2023
As the NFL season begins, we can figure out which teams have the easiest and hardest...
https://www.hankwins.com/nfl-strength-of-schedule/
May 5, 2022
https://www.hankwins.com/2022-mlb-underdog-report/
With MLB historically having the largest win percentage each season for underdog moneylines, it’s time to dive into the numbers for the 2022 MLB Underdog Report.
2022 MLB Underdog Moneyline Profits
All profits listed based on $100 per bet.
| Situation | Underdog SU Records | Profits |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | 137-225 (37.8%) | -$3808.53 |
| HOME | 44-82 (34.9%) | -$2414.95 |
| ROAD | 93-143 (39.4%) | -$1393.58 |
| LAST 3 DAYS | 14-21 (40.0%) | -$221.0 |
| LAST 7 DAYS | 34-58 (37.0%) | -$973.99 |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 69-115 (37.5%) | -$1912.7 |
| LAST 30 DAYS | 137-225 (37.8%) | -$3808.53 |
| DAY | 99-168 (37.1%) | -$3504.57 |
| NIGHT | 38-57 (40.0%) | -$303.96 |
Betting records as of May 5, 2022
A month into the season, MLB underdogs are winning outright 37.8 percent of the time, leading to profits of -$3,808.53 for $100 bettors. After a down year for dogs in 2021, we may be heading into another favorable year for the baseball faves.
| Situation | Underdog ATS Records | Profits |
|---|---|---|
| OVERALL | 203-168 (54.7%) | -$2651.19 |
| HOME | 65-61 (51.6%) | -$1198.23 |
| ROAD | 135-101 (57.2%) | -$1004.85 |
| LAST 3 DAYS | 23-16 (59.0%) | -$100.45 |
| LAST 7 DAYS | 52-45 (53.6%) | -$885.06 |
| LAST 14 DAYS | 101-88 (53.4%) | -$1745.8 |
| LAST 30 DAYS | 203-168 (54.7%) | -$2651.19 |
Betting records as of May 5, 2022
| Day | Underdog Runline | Runline Profits | Underdog SU | Profits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 19-15 (54.7%) | -$147.34 | 13-20 (37.8%) | -$133.0 |
| Tuesday | 30-30 (51.6%) | -$946.98 | 14-42 (34.9%) | -$2282.0 |
| Wednesday | 32-28 (57.2%) | -$659.2 | 23-36 (39.4%) | -$540.0 |
| Thursday | 23-18 (59.0%) | -$177.73 | 16-24 (40.0%) | -$280.99 |
| Friday | 28-28 (53.6%) | -$968.78 | 20-36 (37.0%) | -$956.87 |
| Saturday | 34-27 (53.4%) | -$239.12 | 25-35 (37.5%) | +$34.32 |
| Sunday | 37-22 (54.7%) | +$487.96 | 26-32 (37.8%) | +$350.01 |
Betting records as of May 5, 2022
Generally, it’s safe to be dismissive of such an absurd trend since teams/matchups and many other betting factors change each day, regardless of where it falls on the calendar.
But in Major League Baseball, it seems certain days just work out better for bettors. In 2021, for example, if you had blindly bet $100 on every underdog moneyline exclusively on Tuesdays, you would’ve been up to $4,072.74 in profit. So far in 2022, the weekend has been a haven for underdog MLB bettors.
| Team | Underdog Win % | Underdog SU Record | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| NY Yankees | 100.0 | 1-0 | +$125.0 |
| Milwaukee | 66.7 | 2-1 | +$150.0 |
| Colorado | 53.3 | 8-7 | +$378.0 |
| Arizona | 50.0 | 13-13 | +$628.0 |
| Minnesota | 50.0 | 5-5 | +$114.01 |
| Atlanta | 50.0 | 3-3 | +$59.09 |
| St. Louis | 50.0 | 5-5 | +$67.24 |
| Texas | 47.4 | 9-10 | +$195.0 |
| Toronto | 44.4 | 4-5 | +$42.0 |
| Houston | 42.9 | 3-4 | -$80.0 |
| San Diego | 42.9 | 3-4 | -$37.96 |
| Chi Cubs | 41.2 | 7-10 | +$28.0 |
| LA Angels | 37.5 | 3-5 | -$103.0 |
| Oakland | 36.8 | 7-12 | -$45.0 |
| Miami | 36.4 | 4-7 | -$178.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 36.4 | 8-14 | -$287.0 |
| Baltimore | 36.0 | 9-16 | -$176.0 |
| Washington | 35.0 | 7-13 | -$190.0 |
| Philadelphia | 33.3 | 2-4 | -$159.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 33.3 | 1-2 | -$100.0 |
| Detroit | 33.3 | 6-12 | -$279.0 |
| Cleveland | 33.3 | 6-12 | -$480.96 |
| Kansas City | 31.2 | 5-11 | -$480.0 |
| Seattle | 31.2 | 5-11 | -$534.0 |
| Boston | 30.8 | 4-9 | -$409.0 |
| NY Mets | 25.0 | 1-3 | -$170.0 |
| Cincinnati | 19.0 | 4-17 | -$1153.99 |
| Chi White Sox | 16.7 | 1-5 | -$401.96 |
| San Francisco | 16.7 | 1-5 | -$330.0 |
| LA Dodgers | 0.0 | 0-0 | +$0.0 |
Betting records as of May 5, 2022
This chart is particularly helpful for our underdog bets, as some teams are just outperforming others when they’re not expected to win. We’ll see if a team like Seattle (63-51 as an underdog in 2021) carries that performance into the early weeks of 2022.
So far the best MLB underdog has been the Diamondbacks, with a .500 record and massive early-season profits.
| Pitcher | Profit | Record |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert | +$514.89 | 5-0 (100.0%) |
| Paul Blackburn | +$498.12 | 4-1 (80.0%) |
| Chad Kuhl | +$477.79 | 4-0 (100.0%) |
| Jose Berrios | +$440.78 | 5-0 (100.0%) |
| Bryse Wilson | +$433.96 | 3-0 (100.0%) |
| Zac Gallen | +$360.0 | 3-1 (75.0%) |
| Max Scherzer | +$354.01 | 5-0 (100.0%) |
| Michael Wacha | +$343.0 | 4-1 (80.0%) |
| Tylor Megill | +$336.32 | 5-1 (83.3%) |
| Joe Musgrove | +$322.92 | 5-0 (100.0%) |
| Eric Lauer | +$303.85 | 4-0 (100.0%) |
| Luis Severino | +$288.41 | 5-0 (100.0%) |
| Bruce Zimmermann | +$277.0 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Antonio Senzatela | +$264.41 | 3-1 (75.0%) |
| Pablo Lopez | +$261.54 | 4-1 (80.0%) |
| Steven Matz | +$256.64 | 4-1 (80.0%) |
| Ranger Suarez | +$227.72 | 4-1 (80.0%) |
| Jordan Lyles | +$224.0 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| David Peterson | +$223.54 | 3-0 (100.0%) |
| Josiah Gray | +$213.97 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Spenser Watkins | +$200.0 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Merrill Kelly | +$197.0 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Beau Brieske | +$195.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Alek Manoah | +$191.73 | 4-1 (80.0%) |
| Joe Ryan | +$187.89 | 4-1 (80.0%) |
| Jameson Taillon | +$184.73 | 4-1 (80.0%) |
| Jose Quintana | +$180.0 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Spencer Howard | +$180.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Patrick Sandoval | +$178.49 | 3-1 (75.0%) |
| Kyle Wright | +$175.43 | 4-1 (80.0%) |
| Triston McKenzie | +$173.18 | 3-1 (75.0%) |
| J.P. Feyereisen | +$170.92 | 2-0 (100.0%) |
| Dylan Cease | +$169.76 | 4-1 (80.0%) |
| Drew Rasmussen | +$168.11 | 4-1 (80.0%) |
| Elieser Hernandez | +$165.59 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Cole Irvin | +$165.0 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| JT Brubaker | +$161.0 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Logan Webb | +$157.97 | 4-1 (80.0%) |
| Cristian Javier | +$155.43 | 2-0 (100.0%) |
| Erick Fedde | +$155.0 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Dane Dunning | +$153.0 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Kevin Gausman | +$146.73 | 4-1 (80.0%) |
| Sam Long | +$146.34 | 2-1 (66.7%) |
| Bailey Ober | +$146.18 | 3-1 (75.0%) |
| Michael Lorenzen | +$143.94 | 3-1 (75.0%) |
| Gerrit Cole | +$142.61 | 5-1 (83.3%) |
| Madison Bumgarner | +$139.0 | 3-3 (50.0%) |
| Aaron Ashby | +$135.8 | 2-0 (100.0%) |
| Jimmy Herget | +$130.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Miles Mikolas | +$125.5 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Luis Garcia | +$125.19 | 3-1 (75.0%) |
| Brad Keller | +$121.38 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Humberto Castellanos | +$120.0 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Michael Pineda | +$119.1 | 2-1 (66.7%) |
| Andrew Heaney | +$117.75 | 2-0 (100.0%) |
| Brandon Woodruff | +$117.5 | 4-1 (80.0%) |
| Aaron Civale | +$113.92 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Josh Winder | +$110.0 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Aaron Sanchez | +$100.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Tanner Houck | +$99.43 | 2-1 (66.7%) |
| Ian Anderson | +$96.96 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Max Fried | +$89.73 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Austin Gomber | +$88.67 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Anthony DeSclafani | +$85.0 | 2-1 (66.7%) |
| Ryan Yarbrough | +$80.65 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Walker Buehler | +$79.93 | 4-1 (80.0%) |
| Robbie Ray | +$78.92 | 4-2 (66.7%) |
| Dylan Bundy | +$78.67 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Reid Detmers | +$77.93 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Mike Clevinger | +$75.76 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Jake Odorizzi | +$69.73 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Jeffrey Springs | +$66.67 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Nabil Crismatt | +$64.52 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Yu Darvish | +$61.44 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Clayton Kershaw | +$59.45 | 3-1 (75.0%) |
| Kyle Hendricks | +$57.61 | 3-3 (50.0%) |
| Daniel Lynch | +$53.0 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Tommy Romero | +$47.62 | 1-0 (100.0%) |
| Nick Martinez | +$38.01 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Michael Kopech | +$34.45 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Kyle Gibson | +$24.14 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Shane Bieber | +$23.37 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Kyle Bradish | +$23.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Casey Mize | +$20.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Dakota Hudson | +$16.47 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Ross Stripling | +$13.63 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Matt Manning | +$12.0 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Zach Davies | +$12.0 | 2-3 (40.0%) |
| Josh Rogers | +$10.0 | 1-2 (33.3%) |
| Jesus Luzardo | +$7.91 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Corey Kluber | +$7.89 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Drew Smyly | +$3.29 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Adrian Houser | -$0.93 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Martin Perez | -$3.0 | 2-3 (40.0%) |
| Jose Urquidy | -$3.04 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Chris Bassitt | -$6.9 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Tarik Skubal | -$10.24 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Julio Urias | -$10.82 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Carlos Rodon | -$11.66 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Nestor Cortes Jr. | -$18.7 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Matt Wisler | -$19.35 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Freddy Peralta | -$24.15 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Justin Verlander | -$24.41 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Noah Syndergaard | -$25.89 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Vince Velasquez | -$27.38 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Glenn Otto | -$29.58 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Mark Leiter Jr. | -$30.0 | 1-2 (33.3%) |
| Tony Gonsolin | -$30.07 | 3-2 (60.0%) |
| Chris Archer | -$30.99 | 2-3 (40.0%) |
| Rich Hill | -$40.0 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Justin Steele | -$48.0 | 2-3 (40.0%) |
| Jose Suarez | -$52.13 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Tyler Anderson | -$61.54 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Taylor Hearn | -$65.0 | 2-3 (40.0%) |
| Nick Lodolo | -$65.0 | 1-2 (33.3%) |
| Chris Paddack | -$65.62 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Cal Quantrill | -$69.0 | 2-3 (40.0%) |
| Shohei Ohtani | -$69.8 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Jon Gray | -$70.0 | 1-2 (33.3%) |
| Adam Wainwright | -$73.6 | 3-3 (50.0%) |
| German Marquez | -$77.97 | 2-3 (40.0%) |
| MacKenzie Gore | -$92.86 | 2-2 (50.0%) |
| Caleb Smith | -$100.0 | 0-1 (0.0%) |
| Alex Faedo | -$100.0 | 0-1 (0.0%) |
| Luis Cessa | -$100.0 | 0-1 (0.0%) |
| Connor Overton | -$100.0 | 0-1 (0.0%) |
| Matt Bush | -$100.0 | 0-1 (0.0%) |
| Trevor Williams | -$100.0 | 0-1 (0.0%) |
| Ryan Feltner | -$100.0 | 0-1 (0.0%) |
| Tyler Gilbert | -$100.0 | 0-1 (0.0%) |
| Kyle Muller | -$100.0 | 0-1 (0.0%) |
| James Kaprielian | -$100.0 | 0-1 (0.0%) |
| Scott Effross | -$100.0 | 0-1 (0.0%) |
| Eli Morgan | -$100.0 | 0-1 (0.0%) |
| Luis Patino | -$100.0 | 0-1 (0.0%) |
| Kyle Freeland | -$113.64 | 2-3 (40.0%) |
| Alex Cobb | -$120.0 | 1-2 (33.3%) |
| Carlos Carrasco | -$135.02 | 2-3 (40.0%) |
| Sandy Alcantara | -$136.12 | 2-3 (40.0%) |
| Hunter Greene | -$143.0 | 1-3 (25.0%) |
| Jordan Hicks | -$145.95 | 1-2 (33.3%) |
| Zach Eflin | -$147.74 | 2-3 (40.0%) |
| Matt Brash | -$149.61 | 2-3 (40.0%) |
| Nathan Eovaldi | -$151.86 | 2-3 (40.0%) |
| Alex Wood | -$158.09 | 2-3 (40.0%) |
| Sean Manaea | -$169.02 | 2-3 (40.0%) |
| Jordan Montgomery | -$178.21 | 2-3 (40.0%) |
| Shane McClanahan | -$188.48 | 2-3 (40.0%) |
| Frankie Montas | -$190.95 | 2-4 (33.3%) |
| Zach Thompson | -$195.0 | 1-3 (25.0%) |
| Corbin Burnes | -$198.57 | 2-3 (40.0%) |
| Chris Ellis | -$200.0 | 0-2 (0.0%) |
| Dillon Peters | -$200.0 | 0-2 (0.0%) |
| Garrett Richards | -$200.0 | 0-2 (0.0%) |
| Sonny Gray | -$200.0 | 0-2 (0.0%) |
| Hyun Jin Ryu | -$200.0 | 0-2 (0.0%) |
| Jimmy Lambert | -$200.0 | 0-2 (0.0%) |
| Taijuan Walker | -$200.0 | 0-2 (0.0%) |
| John Means | -$200.0 | 0-2 (0.0%) |
| Huascar Ynoa | -$200.0 | 0-2 (0.0%) |
| Josh Fleming | -$200.0 | 0-2 (0.0%) |
| Daulton Jefferies | -$205.0 | 1-4 (20.0%) |
| Marcus Stroman | -$205.0 | 1-4 (20.0%) |
| Dallas Keuchel | -$213.04 | 1-3 (25.0%) |
| Lucas Giolito | -$228.57 | 1-3 (25.0%) |
| Bryce Elder | -$241.18 | 1-3 (25.0%) |
| Zach Plesac | -$267.0 | 1-4 (20.0%) |
| Yusei Kikuchi | -$270.0 | 1-4 (20.0%) |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | -$275.0 | 1-4 (20.0%) |
| Zack Greinke | -$290.0 | 1-4 (20.0%) |
| Framber Valdez | -$295.0 | 1-4 (20.0%) |
| Garrett Whitlock | -$300.0 | 0-3 (0.0%) |
| Marco Gonzales | -$300.0 | 1-4 (20.0%) |
| Adam Oller | -$300.0 | 0-3 (0.0%) |
| Joan Adon | -$318.7 | 1-4 (20.0%) |
| Chris Flexen | -$323.08 | 1-4 (20.0%) |
| Trevor Rogers | -$328.57 | 1-4 (20.0%) |
| Kris Bubic | -$335.48 | 1-4 (20.0%) |
| Charlie Morton | -$344.44 | 1-4 (20.0%) |
| Tyler Mahle | -$345.0 | 1-5 (16.7%) |
| Aaron Nola | -$347.37 | 1-4 (20.0%) |
| Zack Wheeler | -$350.0 | 1-4 (20.0%) |
| Carlos Hernandez | -$376.0 | 2-6 (25.0%) |
| Tyler Alexander | -$400.0 | 0-4 (0.0%) |
| Reiver Sanmartin | -$400.0 | 0-4 (0.0%) |
| Vladimir Gutierrez | -$500.0 | 0-5 (0.0%) |
| Tyler Wells | -$500.0 | 0-5 (0.0%) |
| Nick Pivetta | -$500.0 | 0-5 (0.0%) |
| Mitch Keller | -$500.0 | 0-5 (0.0%) |
| Patrick Corbin | -$600.0 | 0-6 (0.0%) |
Betting records as of May 5, 2022